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The Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Indians will meet in Cleveland on Saturday in the middle game of a three game series. This game, and series, is between two teams that are much closer in talent and performance than it may appear on first glance with Saturday figuring to be an especially tough one for the home team. A day after the Rays see the Indians’ Cy Young contender, the Rays will use theirs, sending Blake Snell to the mound on Saturday against the Indians’ and their rookie hurler, Shane Bieber.
First pitch of the game between the Rays and Indians is scheduled for Saturday, September 1, 2018, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field. The matchup will be televised regionally on FS1.
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Odds Analysis
The Indians are running away with the AL Central. They have a 13-game lead over the Twins and are shoe-ins for the postseason. The Rays were sellers at the trade deadline and are almost certainly going home at the end of the month. Most of the difference between these two teams, however, is a product of division.
The Rays are competing with the Red Sox in the AL East and sit 20.5-games back. They’re just 4.5-games worse than the Indians though and have been playing great baseball. These teams are much closer matched than most perceive them to be given their divisions.
Tampa Bay is 9-1 in its last 10 games and is 15-6 since August 7. They’re playing great baseball right now, though the team has been much better at home than on the road. The Indians, on the other hand, have a .615 winning percentage at home. They’re also playing well right now at 17-9 in August. Solidifying their bullpen has really helped the Tribe.
Of course, the Indians’ bullpen has some concerns again. Brad Hand has been a great addition, but Andrew Miller is back on the DL, leaving Hand, Oliver Perez and Cody Allen as the only reliable options for Terry Francona late in games.
Kevin Cash has several more options. Cash has had to manipulate the pitching staff all year, using openers, long relievers and the like to protect arms and give his team the best chance to win. Lately it’s been working.
The Rays don’t have the biggest names, but they’re pitching great. In August the team’s ERA is 2.74. Much of that is the bullpen, of course, the Blake Snell—who starts for the Rays in this game—has a big part in that, too.
Probable Pitchers
Blake Snell gets the ball for the Rays on Saturday and just like that, Tampa Bay becomes one of the best teams in baseball.
The young southpaw has had a fantastic season. Aside for Chris Sale, he’s got the best ERA in the AL and has been even better of the last five starts. He hasn’t allowed more than a single run in any game in that span, pitching to a 4-0 record with a 1.04 ERA.
Overall, the young southpaw is 16-5 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.993 WHIP in 25 starts. He’s been worth 5.6 rWAR in his 145 innings of work and has a solid 3.21 FIP and a 198 ERA+.
The Rays are 16-9 when he takes the ball and 12-4 over his last 16 starts dating back to mid-May.
The young lefty has quietly developed into an ace before our eyes and is a serious Cy Young contender. He’s been absolutely filthy at home with a 1.06 ERA, but hasn’t been bad on the road either, pitching to an 8-4 record and 2.91 ERA.
Snell has been pitching better than he has all year of late, but the one thing that could be a concern for the 25-year old is his innings count. He’s already pitched 145 innings in 2018. He only had 129.1 in the Majors last year though he did has 44 more in Triple-A. He may fatigue later in September, but should be good to continue dominating, at least in this game.
With Snell on the mound, the only starter the Indians could throw that would prevent the Rays from having the edge on the mound would be Corey Kluber. He throws Friday with Shane Bieber on the bump on Saturday.
Bieber has been a solid back end starter and is 8-2 in 14 starts though his ERA is 4.52 and his WHIP is 1.343.
The 23-year old right-hander has been a little unlucky with an inflated BABIP. His FIP is 3.35 and he’s got a solid 5.53 strikeout to walk ratio.
Since coming up to the Majors, Bieber has done everything the Indians have asked, though he has struggled in his last few starts as the league has started to adjust to him. He’s thrown 16 innings in those three starts while allowing 10 runs, all earned, on 18 hits. He allowed three homers to the Royals of all teams in his last start.
Live Betting
The offense is the big separator between these two teams. The Indians have scored the third most runs in baseball behind the powerhouses in the AL East. The Rays rank in the bottom third of baseball and No.10 in the AL with 564 runs, more than 100 fewer than Cleveland.
Statistically, the Rays and Indians have similar team averages and OBPs. The big difference in the two teams comes in the power department. Last year, the Rays were a powerful team, but didn’t score much. This year, they’re a much different team. They don’t hit many homers, but they’re much more athletic.
With their success in the last month, the Rays’ offense hasn’t spiked. Instead, it’s been pitching improvements leading to more wins. The offense, on the other hand, has been good enough.
Moving on from Wilson Ramos and Brad Miller, the Rays have given youngsters like Jake Bauers and Willy Adames at-bats. They’ve allowed Matt Duffy and Joey Wendle a chance to have good years and have seen C.J. Cron blossom into their best hitter with a .811 OPS and 25 homers. He’s the lone big power bat in the order while the rest of the team manufactures runs.
Tommy Pham has been a nice player in his 12 games with Tampa Bay, too. He’s another player with a similar offensive game: enough power to be a threat, but a good all-around hitter first and foremost.
For the Indians, the offense centers on Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor. Ramirez has a 1.006 OPS and is the best player on the field for either team. Lindor is a close second. Both players have power, average and speed.
After those two, there are some questions. Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso and Yan Gomes are good players, but the outfield is lacking.
MLB Pick
The Rays are an underrated team. They’ve played very well of late. The young players are playing well offensively and the team’s been able to manufacture runs unlike many of the station to station teams we see today.
Tampa Bay isn’t as good of a team as the Indians, but they have their ace on the mound. Look for Snell to pitch another gem. He’s been amazing and is quietly putting together a Cy Young caliber season. Meanwhile, the bullpen—even without any big names—has pitched very well for Kevin Cash who seemingly pulls the right trigger at a surprisingly high rate.
Even with Ramirez and Lindor, the Indians’ offense will be hard pressed to get much offense on Saturday while the Rays will have a little easier of a path.
Count of Tampa Bay to score a few against Bieber and add on a couple more against a Miller-less Indians bullpen before capturing the win on the road.
MLB Odds: Rays 5, Indians 3
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