These two rivals will close out the 2018 regular season with a three-game weekend series as the San Francisco Giants play host to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers are the only one of these two teams with anything still on the line, but the Giants would love to spoil the fun as long as possible for the boys in blue. These two teams kick off their series on Friday night. Rich Hill is in line for the start for the Dodgers while the Giants’ starter remains unclear.
First pitch of the game between the Dodgers and Giants is scheduled for Friday, September 28, 2018, at 10:15 p.m. ET at AT&T Park. The matchup will be broadcast on live on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
Records and trends don’t paint the entire picture for a matchup, but in this case, it does tell an interesting story for this series opener to the final series of the year.
The Dodgers have won 16 more games than the Giants this year, boasting a much better offense and a +176 run differential to the Giants’ -75. There’s no doubt which is the better team. Despite that, however, their rivals to the north have the edge in the season series, winning nine of their first 16 head-to-head matchups.
Despite the additional wins, however, the Dodgers have outscored the Giants by eight combined runs in their battles, indicating the Giants have done a better job of winning the close games.
When comparing these two teams, it’s the offense that stands out, the pitching is quite balanced. We’ll break down the starting pitching for this game a bit later, but the bullpen ERAs on the season are nearly identical. In fact, the Giants’ pen has outpitched the Dodgers’ pen when they’ve played each other—at least in the close games.
The Giants have a good bullpen. Will Smith and Hunter Strickland are good back-end arms while Tony Watson, Mark Melancon and Sam Dyson are all former closers. Of the three, Melancon has the worst ERA at 3.25.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers have a bullpen ERA one-hundredth of a point better than the Giants on the year and have the superior closer in Kenley Jansen, but outside the lockdown closer, the rest of the pen doesn’t stand out.
L.A., however, now has Kenta Maeda and Alex Wood pitching out of the pen, two sub-4 ERA starters, one from the right-side and one from the left. That certainly helps bulk up the pen. They can take on higher pressure situations opening up Scott Alexander, Pedro Baez and Josh Fields for the middle innings.
Probable Pitchers
With Alex Wood and Kenta Maeda now in the bullpen, the rotation will lineup for Rich Hill to be in position for his final start of the year on Friday night.
The veteran southpaw is a bit of an afterthought in this rotation behind Clayton Kershaw and the emergence of Walker Buehler, but he’ll be critical to the Dodgers’ chances of returning to the Fall Classic with how he pitches in October.
The 38-year old curveball specialist has pitched rather well this season, going 10-5 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.170 WHIP in 24 games. He only threw 125.2 innings and cannot be expected to go deep in this game. He’s generally been little more than a five-inning pitcher this year as it is, but in what amounts to a brush up start before postseason play, Dave Roberts figures to be careful with his aging vet, particularly if the division is wrapped up.
That said, Hill did go seven innings in his last start, throwing just 93 pitches, so he can go deep in a game if needed. In that contest, he held the Padres to a single run on four hits and no walks. He also struck out seven. It was a nice bounce back game for Hill after allowing four runs in three straight games leading into that start.
Hill faced San Francisco in his first so starts of the year, combining for 10 innings and three runs allowed, but hasn’t faced the Giants since.
It’ll be interesting to see how he fairs given a rocky September. He’s 4-0 in the month, but that’s mostly on the bullpen and offense. He’s pitched to a 5.09 ERA in those four starts.
On the other side of this matchup, the Giants have yet to announce their starter. Madison Bumgerner could he held back to make the start against the Dodgers.
Bumgarner is 15-10 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.058 WHIP in 31 career regular season appearances against Los Angeles. He’s faced L.A. as much as anyone in his career and has done well. This year, he’s got a pair of quality starts against the Dodgers, most recently holding them to two runs over six innings back in August.
Overall, Bumgarner is having a solid season. He missed the first two months, limiting him to just 20 starts. In those 20 starts, he’s 6-6 with a 3.20 ERA. His strikeout numbers are down and walk numbers are up, however, leaving him with a 1.237 WHIP and 3.99 FIP.
The veteran righty is a big game pitcher and would be a difficult arm to face in the series opener for the Dodgers. The alternative would be Dereck Rodriguez which may be an even bigger challenge.
Rodriguez leads the Giants in rWAR and has been great since getting the call from the minors. He’s 6-4 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.084 WHIP in 115.1 innings of work spread over 20 appearances, including 18 starts.
A Hall-of-Famer’s son, he’s certainly got a Major League pedigree and has been fantastic overall. He’s got a 3.46 FIP and has allowed just seven homers. He’s not a big strikeout arm, but can get them when he needs them. If he makes the start, it’ll be the first time the Dodgers face him.
Live Betting
On the mound, the Giants have the slight edge. The bullpens are about equal and the Giants will send one of their better starters to the mound in this game. Is that slight edge, however, enough to overcome a serious mismatch in the batters’ box?
Offensively, there could not be two more different teams, particularly not in the NL. The Dodgers have scored more runs than any team in the league while the Giants have been outscored by every team in baseball save the Marlins. Nearly all of the difference in the run differential between these teams can be found on offense where the Dodgers have outscored the Giants by 177 runs.
The Dodgers have a .768 OPS as a team and the Giants don’t even have a single player with more than 50 at bats with an OPS that high. In fact, the highest on the team now that Andrew McCutchen is in New York is Brandon Belt at .756.
Belt’s 108 OPS+ leads the Giants, but the Dodgers have 10 players with at least 270 plate appearances and an OPS higher than that.
The most homers hit by an active Giant is 16 by Evan Longoria. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have 33 from Max Muncy. Seven different Dodger hitters have at least 21 homers for the team and that doesn’t even include Manny Machado who has 13 with the Dodgers and had 24 more with the Orioles before being traded mid-year.
The power is there for the Dodgers, but it is not all about power. Eight players with at last 270 plate appearances have an OBP of at least .330.
All of these numbers don’t even include Alex Verdugo or David Freese, both of which have hit well in limited action for the Dodgers.
The offensive depth in Los Angeles is truly amazing while the offensive ineptitude in San Francisco is noticeable, too.
MLB Pick
The Giants win the battle of the starters, but baseball is about more than who is on the mound any given day; although that is a large factor.
Look for the Giants to get a good start by either Bumgarner or Rodriguez, but even pitching well, the Giants have lost the last six starts by Rodriguez and it hasn’t been on him. The bullpen and offense let him down and that’s likely to happen on Friday.
The Dodgers are a much, much better offense. Look for them to scratch a couple runs across against the Giants’ starter and add a couple more against the bullpen. Meanwhile, count on a good—though not great—outing by Hill. He, however, did hold a similar offense to one run in seven innings in his last start. He likely won’t go as deep this time, but with the crop of starters-turned-relievers, the Dodgers should have enough to bridge the gap to Kenley Jansen, eventually handing Hill, and the Dodgers, a close win against a bitter rival.
MLB Odds: Dodgers 5, Giants 3
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