Heading into September, the Chicago Cubs had a seemingly stable lead in the NL Central, up 4.5-games. Now, the head into a three-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers up by just a pair. It’s the final showdown between these two divisional foes and the best chance for the Brew Crew to close the gap on the Cubbies. On Tuesday, these two teams will face off in the swing game of the series with Jhoulys Chacin and Jose Quintana scheduled to take the mound.
First pitch for the game between the Brewers and Cubs is scheduled for Monday, September 10, 2018, at 8:05 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. The matchup will be shown on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
The Brewers won the series against the Cubs last week, but Chicago still has the lead in the season series, having already clinched a season series win with 10 wins in 16 games.
While a 10-6 record for the Cubbies would seemingly indicate a large advantage, the two teams are only separated by eight total runs in those 16 games. All in all, these two teams are rather evenly matched.
Offensively, the Cubs would appear to be the better team. They’re loaded with offensive talent, particularly after the acquisition of Daniel Murphy and the return of Kris Bryant. They are first in the NL in runs scored, plating 683. They’ve also got the second-best average in baseball at .263, just behind the first-place Red Sox.
Overall, the only area that the Brewers have outperformed the Cubs offensively is with the longball. They’ve hit 34 more dingers. Even so, the Cubs’ still have a slugging percentage of .420, just like the Brewers.
More recently, however, it seems the Brewers have been better than the Cubs at the plate. In the second half, the Cubs are in the middle of the pack in runs scored in the NL while the Brewers rank fourth. They’ve got a .265/.331/.445 slash line to the Cubs’ .258/.324/.410.
Christian Yelich has been the start of the second half for the Brewers, pushing his way into MVP consideration. He’s hitting .354 since the break with 17 homers and 43 RBIs. He’s posted a 1.128 OPS. Meanwhile, Lorenzo Cain is still getting on base at a nearly 40-percent clip, Ryan Braun has a .875 second half OPS, and Travis Shaw has continued to put up numbers regardless of the position he’s played.
While the Brewers have a MVP candidate, the Cubs may just have the frontrunner in Javier Baez with 30 homers and 100 RBIs. He, Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, and—since the acquisition—Daniel Murphy, have been the Cubs’ offensive stars in the second half.
Probable Pitchers
Some questioned the deal when the Brewers signed Jhoulys Chacin in the offseason, but the veteran right-hander has been one of the best free agent signings of the season. The de facto ace has certainly delivered above and beyond expectations. In 30 starts, he’s 14-6 with a 3.59 ERA and 3.95 FIP. He’s thrown 168 innings. The Brew Crew are 20-10 when Chacin is on the mound and 8-4 over his las 12 starts.
Even more recently, the 30-year old has only allowed more than three earned runs once in the last 10 games. He’s also a very strong 2-1 with a 1.53 ERA in three starts against the Cubs this season. On the downside, however, he’s coming off a rough start where he allowed five runs—three earned—in just 4.2 innings on Wednesday to the Cubs, losing to his counterpart on Tuesday, Jose Quintana.
The Cubs’ southpaw will hope the rematch will go as well as the game last week. He was the only pitcher able to get a win against the Brewers last week, throwing 6.2 innings and allowing only two runs in the win. His season numbers aren’t great, but he’s allowed two runs or less in each of his last four starts.
Quintana is 12-9 this year with a 4.14 ERA and 1.341 WHIP. His 4.52 FIP is elevated due to a 3.8 walk per nine inning ratio along with 20 homers allowed. The Brewers aren’t a team that walks much, but they can hit the home run.
Interestingly, Quintana’s strong start against Milwaukee last week came on the road where he’s got a 3.56 ERA. He’s got a 4.88 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 59 innings at home this year. We’ll see how he fares against the Brewers at Wrigley this time around.
Live Betting
The Brewers’ bullpen was the story of the first couple months of the season. From Josh Hader to Jeremy Jeffress to Dan Jennings, the Brew Crew was getting shutdown innings from nearly everyone. Unfortunately, the unit has fallen a bit due to fatigue and struggles by former closer Corey Knebel.
Knebel was even sent out for a bit. He’s back and has looked better in lower pressure situations, but the pen is nowhere as deep as it was early on.
Hader hasn’t been as good the last month as he’s tired. Meanwhile, Jeffress has moved into the closer role where he’s been good, but that’s left a hole setting up from the right-side. Joakim Soria hasn’t been what the team expected since his acquisition. Corbin Burnes has looked good as has Jacob Barnes while Xavier Cedeno has produced strong early returns.
This is still a top-5 pen in the NL, but just barely. On the other side of this matchup, the Cubs rank second in the NL in bullpen ERA.
The Cubs, of course, are still missing Brandon Morrow who won’t be back with the club until after this series. Pedro Strop will continue as the closer. He’s done well in the role.
Steve Cishek has regressed a bit this month and Carl Edwards Jr. is a bit scary with his walk rate, but from Justin Wilson to Jesse Chavez, there are still good options at Joe Maddon’s disposal. Still, it seems the Cubs could benefit from another arm or two throwing well given Brandon Kintzler’s struggles and Tyler Chatwood’s inability to throw a strike.
MLB Pick
This should be a great game. Chacin has pitched so well all season while Quintana has really stepped up his game the last four outings.
Look for both starters to go six solid innings before turning the ball over to a pair of strong, but not invincible bullpens.
In the end, count on a very close game with the Brewers pulling out the win on the road. Milwaukee needs this game more. They have their ace on the mound and need to win this series to keep their division hopes alive.
While this head-to-head matchup yielded a win for the Cubs last week, don’t look for the same result here. The Brewers have been playing well and have cut the Cubs’ lead down to a couple games. They’ve got some momentum.
MLB Odds: Brewers 5, Cubs 4
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