The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Washington Nationals for the final game of a three-game series on Wednesday. The Phillies are in desperate needs of wins as they try to stay relevant in their push for the postseason, but they’ve been slipping closer to the Nationals in the standings. This is an important game for Philadelphia and there is an epic pitching matchup in this series finale as the Phillies send their NL Cy Young hopeful, Aaron Nola, to the hill against the Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg.
First pitch of the game between the Nationals and Phillies is schedule for Wednesday, September 12, 2018, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. The matchup will be broadcast on each team’s local television network.
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Odds Analysis
The Phillies now sit half a game closer to the Nationals in the NL East than the first-place Atlanta Braves, on the fringes of the postseason picture, but still within ear shot; at least for now.
Philadelphia was atop the NL East as recently as August 12, but has been behind Atlanta ever since and as a team is a dismal 10-19 since August 8.
Offensively, the Phillies have slumped. They’ve scored the third fewest runs in the NL in September and were No.24 in baseball in runs scored in August.
The offense has been the weakness of the Phillies all season long, but has gone backwards recently even after the additions of Wilson Ramos, Asdrubal Cabrera, Justin Bour and Jose Bautista. Really, Ramos is the only one of the four to contribute in any real sizable way. He’s played 17 games and has a .385/.433/.615 slash line over the last month.
As for the rest of the team, Rhys Hoskins is still providing some pop, but this .235 average over his last 27 games is quite pedestrian. Meanwhile, Odubel Herrera is hitting below the Mendoza Line over the last 30-days while Maikel Franco has been only marginally better with a .209 average and .254 OBP. In totality, Ramos and Hoskins are the only two above league average in production.
On the other side of the matchup, the Nationals continue to sit around .500 despite a +70 run differential. The offense is better, at least on paper, than the one in Philadelphia, but the team just cannot seem to produce at the right times.
In their eight September games, the Nationals have outscored all other NL teams, yet they’re still not getting anywhere in the standings.
Even after trading away a few players, the offense is still deep. They have Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Mark Reynolds and Ryan Zimmerman all with an OPS+ of at least 117. Trea Turner, meanwhile, has a .340 OBP and 37 steals. There are issues at second and catcher, but this is a good lineup.
Probable Pitchers
The NL Cy Young Award is down to a three-person race with the Nationals having their candidate and the Phillies’ theirs. Washington’s candidate, Max Scherzer, is slated to miss this series, but the Phillies’ candidate, Aaron Nola, is in line for the start on Wednesday. He’ll go against a top-3 Cy Young contender from last year, Stephen Strasburg.
Nola has had a phenomenal year with a 9.4 rWAR and 16-4 record and 2.29 ERA. Those numbers rank the young right-hander second in both wins and ERA. He’s got a 0.959 WHIP and 2.87 FIP. He’s allowed just 13 home runs in 188.2 innings of work and has a 3.92 strikeout to walk ratio.
The Phillies are 20-9 when Nola takes the ball and 5-2 in their last seven games despite the team as a whole not playing as well of late.
While Nola’s been incredibly consistent, his September hasn’t been quite as strong. He’s allowed seven runs in 12.2 innings of work, but is coming off a seven innings, three-run win against the Mets in his last start. Prior to this month, however, he had six consecutive games allowing two runs or fewer and allowed no more than a single earned run in five of those six contests.
In his last two starts against Washington, Nola threw 15 innings and allowed just two runs—on earned—with nine hits and 17 strikeouts. This season against the Nationals, he’s 3-0, allowing four earned runs in 28.2 innings. The team is 4-0 in his four starts.
On the other side of this matchup, Strasburg comes into the game on what’s been an off year. He’s struggled with health—as he usually does—but also effectiveness.
The veteran right-hander has made just 18 starts this year and is 7-7 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.215 WHIP in 107 innings pitched.
He’s made four starts since coming off the DL. His first two came against the Phillies where he allowed a combined seven runs over those two games, lasting only 10 total innings. He’s been a bit better in his last two starts, however, giving up four earned runs in 11.2 innings of work. He threw 111 pitches in his last start and should be a full go without any pitch limitations on Wednesday.
Overall, the team is just 9-9 when Strasburg gets the start though they are 3-1 since he came off the DL, including getting wins in both games against the Phillies.
While the numbers aren’t great for Strasburg he has been better this year on the road than at home. He’s 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA in seven road starts and will look to add to that in this one.
As Strasburg gets close to the end of the 2018 season, the biggest difference for him between this one and last year when he had a 2.52 ERA is his BABIP against. He’s allowed more, harder hit balls. He’s allowed one more homer in nearly 70 fewer innings and has seen his hit rate jump to the highest point in his career. He’s still striking out 10.4 per nine innings, but when he does get hit, it’s doing more damage.
Live Betting
The Nationals have the second worst ERA in the NL and the Phillies the third worst in September. Both teams are struggling on the mound, particularly out of the bullpen.
Washington does finally have Sean Doolittle back in action to help. After missing two months, he returned on September 8 and got two outs—and a hold—in a win against the Cubs. The bullpen no longer has Ryan Madson, Brandon Kintzler or Shawn Kelley. Meanwhile, Kelvin Herrera is on the DL so the All-Star closer is a welcomed addition to the back end of the pen that now includes Greg Holland.
Holland was a bust in St. Louis, but has benefited from a change of scenery. The former closer has gotten save chances again and converted both. He’s allowed just one run and five hits in 14 innings of work. He has walked five, but has still kept runner off the bases at a good clip.
Between Holland and Doolittle there are options in the final couple innings, but the sixth and seventh are still up in the air.
For the Phillies, Seranthony Dominguez is gassed. The youngster was a great closer for much of the season, taking over for a struggling Hector Neris, but has been struggling himself. He’s hit a wall when they’ve needed him most.
Pat Neshek has stepped in as a closer along with Tommy Hunter and both have done a good job. The veterans have also gotten help from Neris who has been great since rejoining the team. He’s struck out 22 and allowed just one run in 10.2 innings in that time.
There are still some good options for the Phillies late in the game besides Dominguez and Victor Arano both appear to have run out of gas here at the end of the regular season.
MLB Pick
The Phillies are a young team and they’ve been showing their youth of late as they’ve fallen into the fringes of the potential postseason picture. Despite that, look for them to rally behind their ace on Wednesday and capture a win in the series finale.
Nola’s been as a reliable a starter as there is in the game and should have another strong performance on Wednesday, giving the Phillies six or seven good innings before turning the ball over to the pen. The Philadelphia pen has had some issues, but should be able to give two or three innings to hold on to the lead.
On the other side, Strasburg has been better his last two starts, but the Phillies’ offense got to him a few weeks ago and should put a few runs on the board again, at least enough to get the win.
Look for a close game with both starters doing their part to keep their team in the game, but Nola’s the better pitcher at this point and he’ll give his offense and bullpen bit of wiggle room and the Phillies will pull out the close win.
MLB Betting Odds: Phillies 4, Nationals 3
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