A crucial three-game series that will likely decide the winner of the NL East and a bye through the wild card round isn’t enough for the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves to deal with. The teams and MLB will also have to work around what Hurricane Ian conjures up. With so much on the line the clubs would like to play the series with as few disruptions as possible. Should the games proceed as scheduled the Sunday Night Baseball matchup would be huge for one of the teams. The Mets and Braves entered Wednesday tied for the division lead with identical 97-58 records.
First pitch for this NL East showdown between the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 2, 2022. The game will air live on ESPN from Truist Park. BookMaker.eu will have betting options for every game of the MLB season.
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Odds Analysis
There are contingency plans in place should Ian wreak havoc on the Atlanta area, but ideally the teams would like to play the series. Switching days and times are possibilities and either way the games will be played in order to determine a division champ and playoff seeding. The Mets suffered a big loss on Tuesday, 6-4, to the Marlins dropping them into a first place tie. They held sole possession of the NL East for all but four days this season and had a 10.5-game bulge as late as June 1.
There have been cracks in the rotation with Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker struggling in the second half. And Max Scherzer had another brief stint on the IL. One thing the Metropolitans can hang their hat on is having a lead in the season series entering the final matchups of the season. New York won nine of the first 16 meetings, however, most of that damage took place in the Big Apple. The Mets dropped three of the last four games in Atlanta.
Few teams have been hotter than the Braves over the last four months allowing them to overcome a rocky start to the season and work on defending their World Series title. Since the start of June Atlanta has won more than 70 percent of its games making up the 10.5-game difference in the standings by defeating Washington on Tuesday, the Braves’ fourth straight victory. They flashed some offense in those games scoring eight runs in each of the last three wins and 30 total during the streak with the over 4-1 in their last five games.
The Braves have been strong offensively all season ranked among the top-5 in scoring, OPS and home runs. They took three of four from the Mets at home in the most recent series between the clubs averaging 7.0 runs. The Braves have the third-highest OVER percentage in MLB at 52.4 with the Mets first at 54.8 percent. Not surprisingly the OVER is 10-5-1 in the first 16 meetings.
Probable Pitchers
If things work out the way everybody hopes they do and the games are played on schedule, we have a great pitching matchup likely to take place on Sunday. The Mets would send Max Scherzer (11-4, 2.13 ERA) to the hill for his fourth start against the Braves this season. He’s pitched as well against Atlanta as anyone going 3-0 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.64 WHIP over 20.1 innings. He’s allowed just 10 hits while fanning 28. His worst outing was his last giving up four runs with three walks over 6.1 innings, but he was bailed out by an offensive outburst from his mates in a 9-7 victory. The Mets won each of his last two starts and are 14-8 when Scherzer toes the bump.
The Braves would counter with their own veteran Charlie Morton (9-6, 4.29 ERA), who makes his fourth start of the season against the Mets. Morton had a rough last outing giving up six hits and six runs with two homers in 4.2 innings against the Nationals, but got help from his offense with the Braves rallying for an 8-7 win. He’s yielded at least four runs in four of his last six starts pitching to a 5.57 ERA. He’s 1-2 with a 4.67 ERA in three starts against the Mets this season.
Mets at Braves MLB Odds Pick
If I could have any pitcher to win one game Scherzer would be on a short list. He’s having another excellent season and he’s been able to silence Atlanta’s bats in his starts against them. The same can’t be said about Morton, which is why I’m backing the Mets in this critical contest.
MLB Odds Prediction: New York Mets / OVER
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