The Subway Series will wrap under the lights of ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball telecast when the New York Mets send Tylor Megill to the bump to square off against Jameson Taillon and the New York Yankees. The Mets have lived up to preseason expectations through the first three months holding a 3-game lead atop the NL East standings and sitting alongside the Dodgers and Padres as favorites to win the National League. The same can’t be said of Aaron Boone’s Yankees who’ve stumbled their way to a 41-38 record that finds them trailing the Red Sox, Rays and Blue Jays in the AL East. Surprisingly, it’s been a lack of offensive punch that’s gotten the best of the ‘Bronx Bombers’ to this point of the season. Will Giancarlo Stanton and company have it in them to bust out against a rookie making his third career start in front of a nationally televised audience; in Yankee Stadium no less? I’m betting they will!
First pitch for the game between the New York Mets and New York Yankees is scheduled for Sunday, July 4, 2021, at 7:15 p.m. ET from Yankee Stadium. This week’s Sunday Night Baseball telecast will air live on ESPN. Bet on MLB odds and player props at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
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Odds Analysis
This game represents the last of a seven-game road trip that kicked off with a loss in Washington. Though it bounced back to take the series opener from Atlanta, New York still looks to be a team to fade when playing away from the comforts of Citi Field. The Mets have won 23 of their 34 played games in front of the hometown faithful $484, but will invade the Bronx sitting six-games under the breakeven point as visitors -$531. It hasn’t mattered where the Yankees have played this season; they’ve cost MLB bettors huge chunks of their bankroll! That said, the team has still played to a .500 record on the road -$518 and supplanted it by winning 22 of 41 home games -$439. These in-state rivals split their six matchups a season ago with the over cashing in at a 3-2-1 clip.
Probable Pitchers
Tylor Megill: The righty has been a nice surprise for Luis Rojas and the coaching staff with the starting staff suffering a number of injuries to this point of the season. Through two starts, Megill has allowed eight hits and 5 ER with a K/BB ratio of 12:4 over 9.1 combined innings of work. Both outings came against the dysfunctional Braves who’ve yet to get on track all season. Same goes for the Yankees, so it remains to be seen whether he excels once again or gets lit up like a Christmas tree. He’ll have to be on point with his slider though as his 95 mph heater is straight as an arrow and attacks the top of the zone relentlessly. The Yankees power bats should be able to take advantage if his secondary pitches aren’t working.
Jameson Taillon: The reclamation project that’s been Jameson Taillon looked to have taken a turn for the better a few starts back when he tossed 11 combined innings of nine hit and 3 ER ball at the Royals and A’s. He also added 11 strikeouts and only issued three free passes. Unfortunately, his last outing against the Shohei Ohtani and the Angels proved he’s still not quite there after conceding nine hits 3 HR and 5 ER through 5.1 innings. Bottom line, the kid’s stuff is just too hittable evidenced by the 11.3 hits per nine innings averaged over the last 30 days. Once he rediscovers how to attain whiffs on his slider and curveball, things could get much better. Until then, Taillon is one to continue fading.
Mets vs. Yankees Prediction
After being forced to run up against Taijuan Walker and Marcus Stroman in the first two games of this series, I can’t help but think the Yankees will be thrilled to take their hacks against a rookie. I’m not completely buying into what Megill did in his first two MLB starts with the Braves offense about as schizophrenic as it gets. While the same can be said of the Yankees, the offense has come around over the last week in averaging 5.0 runs per game. I’ll be targeting the home teams run total in this matchup and will look to hit the high side of it. The Mets should get theirs as well with Taillon’s stuff simply not locked in. If an ump with a tight K zone situates himself behind the dish, I’ll also be looking to hit the over for the first five innings and full game. It only makes sense for some fireworks to go off on July 4th, right? Regardless, I’m looking for both offenses to put on a show in what should amount to a high scoring slugfest.
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