Why not us? That’s what the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies are asking after watching the upstart Atlanta Braves take the NL East title last season. Both teams made serious upgrades in hopes of contending for not only the division title, but the NL pennant as well.
The offseason signing of Bryce Harper accelerated the Phillies’ rebuild and sparked interest in a team that struggled in recent years. The Mets are hoping their rotation can stay healthy and provide enough of a boost to get them back to relevance. It’s still early, but these division rivals meet for the first time with both eyeing first place.
This MLB game between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies will be held at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA at 7 p.m. ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The game will be nationally televised on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The signing of Harper immediately made the Phillies a threat in the division and in the NL. Add the young slugger to a lineup that includes potential stars in Rhys Hoskins and Maikel Franco and the Phillies should be able to put runs on the board.
New York’s pitching staff is built to counteract that, and as the old saying goes, good pitching stops good hitting. The Mets have one of their top arms in Noah Syndergaard scheduled to toe the rubber against Phillies ace Aaron Nola in what is likely to be a pitchers duel.
Probable Pitchers
He hasn’t been bad, but he also hasn’t been Syndergaard good at the start of the season. Noah went 7.0 innings in his last start, stretched out to the longest of the season, and was supported by nine runs. Syndergaard’s best outing of the year so far came in a 4-0 loss when the only hit he allowed in 6.0 innings was a home run to Washington’s Victor Robles.
Thor’s 4.74 ERA isn’t a true indicator of his early season performance. He allowed just one run over seven innings in his last start before the Twins plated three off him in the eighth. While most starters are eased into the season with limited pitch counts, Syndergaard has thrown at least 98 pitches in each of his three starts.
The Phils say they aren’t worried by the early season numbers of Aaron Nola, but maybe they should be. He was staked to a 6-1 lead last time out and gave most of it back before the bullpen crumbled in a 10-6 loss to the Nats. Perhaps he just needs to face a lineup other than Washington’s.
In his last two starts, both against the Nats, Nola allowed 10 earned runs and five homers across 9.1 innings in a pair of no-decisions. Philly ended up dropping both games allowing a total of 19 runs.
Key Stat
Pitching is supposed to be a strength for the Mets and it may well be as the season progresses. But we’ve seen Jacob deGrom struggle and Syndergaard’s ERA is well over four entering this matchup. Outside of closer Edwin Diaz, the pen has been rocky as well.
The Mets bullpen ERA is one of the worst in baseball and the group has blown a pair of save opportunities already. The bridge between starters and Diaz is shaky and the Phils have the offense to exploit the Mets weakness. Philly’s bullpen ERA is just slightly better and we saw a couple of games against Washington get out of hand, and that could lead to runs being scored in the later innings.
Free MLB ATS Picks
The Phillies have done damage at home and that’s a huge confidence boost against one of the best arms in the business. Both clubs have shown the ability to hit the long ball and score runs early in the season, and Citizens Bank Park is known as a hitters haven.
However, with Syndergaard and Nola throwing, this is more likely to be a pitchers duel and I like the Phils to get to the Mets pen after Thor exits, since he’s not likely to go the distance. This one has the under on the total written all over it, and I’m going to play that in a Phils victory.
MLB Betting Odds: Philadelphia Phillies 3, New York Mets 2
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