As bad the New York Mets have been a month into the season, both the Philadelphia Phillies +400 and Atlanta Braves +180 find themselves looking up at them on the current odds to win the NL East at online sportsbooks. That’s a bit more understandable with Philly considering it’s already dropped six of nine matchups to the Metropolitans to date, while Atlanta is yet to run up against their other division rival. Regardless, the Phillies will enter this series fresh off a handling of the Milwaukee Brewers. Atlanta did the same in D.C where it took the first two games of the three-game set versus the Nats. As such, first place will be on the line when the teams close their three-game series out in the “ATL” as Aaron Nola takes to the bump for the visitors to square off against the upstart Huascar Ynoa. Atlanta took two of three from Bryce Harper and company at home back in early April with all three matchups playing to high scorers.
First pitch for this NL East showdown between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves is scheduled for Sunday, May 9, 2021, at 7 p.m. ET from Truist Park. This week’s Sunday Night Baseball telecast will air live on ESPN. Bet on MLB odds and player props at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
MLB Betting Lines at BookMaker.eu
Odds Analysis
The Phillies were huge disappointments in Joe Girardi’s first season calling the shots with the squad managing a 28-32 record to cost MLB bettors upwards of $900 overall. While only a single game over .500 through its first 31 played games in 2021, the effort has brought in a plus-money return for those that backed them. However, a bulk of it has been earned at home where the Phillies stand 12-6 overall $563. As a visitor, the team has logged just four wins through 13 tries -$505. Only four teams have cost baseball bettors more money than that of the Atlanta Braves. Brian Snitker’s troops were most recently marred in a four-game losing streak up until turning things around against the Nationals. It’s all added up to a 14-16 overall record that’s equated to a -$433 overall return on investment. It’s played .500 ball at home -$227 and sits three games under .500 on the road -$281. It’ll likely be installed short home dogs to Nola with the total in the 8-9 run range.
Probable Pitchers
Aaron Nola: Through seven starts and a total of 43.2 innings, the right-hander has been electric in pitching to a 3-1 record and 2.89 ERA while holding opponents to a .218 batting average against BAA. Nola enters start No. 8 off tossing six innings of 1 ER ball at the Brewers to log his third win of the season. He racked up 10 Ks for the second time this season and kept his streak of issuing two or less walks per start intact. He took a no decision in his season debut against the Braves after hurling 6.2 innings of 2 ER ball with a 6:0 K/BB ratio. He split his two starts against the Braves a season ago, but only allowed a total of eight hits 3 HR and 5 ER through 10.2 combined innings. He’ll be out for some redemption after getting peppered for 2 HR and 4 ER through just 2.2 innings in his lone Truist Park start a season ago. However, most of Atlanta’s heavy hitters have better than average splits against him.
Huascar Ynoa: What a revelation Ynoa has been for the Braves in the early part of the season! The youngster has not only aided the team with his arm, but also his bat after sending a grand slam into the night in D.C to help propel the Braves to the 6-1 win over Washington in his last start. Though he only managed to tally 4 K, Ynoa would allow just four hits and no ER through his seven innings of work. The effort amounted to his third quality start of the season. With Atlanta without both Mike Soroka and Max Fried throughout the first month of the season, Atlanta would undoubtedly find itself much lower in the standings if not for his individual efforts. He made his season debut out of the pen versus the Phillies back on April 3 and tossed a scoreless inning. Save for the Cubs tagging him for 6 ER back on April 17, the righty has allowed 2 ER or less in his other five starts. Atlanta’s won two of his three home starts with the over cashing in at a 2-0-1 clip.
Phillies vs. Braves Prediction
After running up against Zach Eflin and Vince Velasquez in the first two games of this series, tonight’s bout with Nola is likely to be a much stiffer challenge for the Braves’ hitters. Same goes for the Phillies with Ynoa bringing a sterling 38:8 K/BB ratio with him into his seventh start of the MLB betting season. Both of these teams rank out as below average in the strikeout department against right-handed pitching with Atlanta clocking in at No. 17 and Philadelphia No. 21. It might be wise to hit the over when targeting each starting pitchers strikeout props. Coinciding with my belief that the offenses will be held in check, I’ll test fate and bet that the first ESPN Sunday Night Baseball telecast of the season will be of the lower scoring variety. I did the same thing last week and looked great up until the eighth inning when the Mets offense inexplicably erupted. The baseball gods owe me one this week!
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