After getting rolled up and smoked in the opener and being forced to stare back at Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler in the next two games, it’s highly possible the Chicago Cubs will be looking to avoid getting swept by the Philadelphia Phillies when the series concludes Thursday night. Should that be the case, Dave Ross’s squad will be in the midst of a prolonged 12-game losing streak that could’ve pushed the team 10-games in back of the NL Central leading Milwaukee Brewers. On the flipside, the Phillies could have five wins in the bag through their last six tries at online sportsbooks and could improve that mark with veteran Zack Eflin set to square off against Adbert Alzolay in the finale. However, I’ve got a feeling the Cubs show up big with Alzolay showing signs of being locked back in in his most recent turn. Eflin’s been serviceable but is a six-inning pitcher at best, so look for the Phillies horrific bullpen to find a way to muck this one up.
First pitch for the finale between the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs is scheduled for Thursday, July 8, 2021, at 8 p.m. ET from Wrigley Field. The matchup will air live on ESPN. Bet on MLB odds and player props at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
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Odds Analysis
The Phillies recent success now finds it just two games below the breakeven point and nearly even for the season for MLB bettors. Even so, Monday night’s 13-3 thrashing of the Cubs moved the Phillies to 10-games under .500 when playing away from the comforts of Citizen Bank Park. The end result has cost those that backed them in the visitor’s role upwards of $800 overall. That said, Joe Girardi’s troops have excelled against the NL Central in taking nine of 14 overall skirmishes. Since Zach Davies and the Cubs bullpen all combined to shut the Dodgers out back on June 24, the team has failed to get back in the win column after dropping the next three to LA and following it up with series losses to the Brewers and Reds on the road. Even with the loss to the Phillies in the opener that dropped them a game under .500 for the season, the Cubs still check in a commanding 26-15 and up around $780 when playing in the “Friendly Confines.”
Probable Pitchers
Zach Eflin: The righty is one of those rare pitching commodities that’s better than his stats dictate. Through 16 starts, Eflin is the owner of a 3-6 record, 4.13 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. However, his FIP clocks in at 3.67 so he’s been a bit unlucky due to the Phillies middle of the road defense supporting him. The right-hander snapped a string of eight straight starts that he either took the loss or settled for a no-decision his last time out against the San Diego Padres whom he limited to just three hits and 2 ER through six innings. The quality start was the third over his last five which makes it 10 through 16 overall. This will be his first start against Chicago since 2019. He’s 1-1 with a 2.81 ERA but .333 batting average against through four career starts; he’s been fortunate to leave a number of ducks on the pond.
Adbert Alzolay: the home run ball continues to plague Alzolay who’s surrendered at least two in each of his three made starts since returning from the IL due to a blister issue. That said, his slider was popping once again in his most recent start against Cincinnati. He allowed five hits and 3 ER, but tallied 15 whiffs and 35 percent of his strikes were either called or swinging. When not serving up shots to the cheap seats, Alzolay has proven numerous times that he has the stuff to excel at the MLB level. Philadelphia just so happens to be ranked No. 23 in the home run department regardless of it launching five in the opener. The Phillies own a 28.5 percent K rate (No. 20). Alzolay’s strikeout prop will be in play with it being the first time he’s thrown at Bryce Harper and company in his career.
Phillies vs. Cubs Prediction
If Alzolay is truly back in the groove that saw him kick off the 2021 MLB betting season in style, the Cubs will win this game. While Eflin has had previous success throwing at the Cubs lineup, Chicago left a ton of runners on base evidenced by the righty conceding 30 hits through 25+ innings pitched. Should Chicago fail to topple the Phillies on Tuesday or Wednesday, it will take to the field hungry for a win in the finale. I fully expect Chicago to give Alzolay some early run support which should have the youngster pitching confidently right from the get go. Once his night comes to an end, he’ll hand it off to one of the best bullpens in the game. Hit Chicago on the moneyline and also play the Cubs on some alternate run-lines to sweeten the pot even more!
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