A key matchup in the NL East race takes place on Saturday when the Philadelphia Phillies visit the New York Mets. Both teams are chasing the Braves for the top spot in the division and both are still very much alive in the race for the second wild card spot. However, trading wins with each other zero factors their chances of playing baseball in October. Based on recent results you might say neither is deserving of the postseason. But the format is what it is and the games down the stretch should at least be entertaining. The Phils are scheduled to send Aaron Nola to the bump against Carlos Carrasco in a battle of right-handers in the middle game of a three-game set.
First pitch for this NL East contest between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 18, 2021 from Citi Field in Queens. The matchup will air live on FOX. Bet on MLB odds and player props at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
MLB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Odds Analysis
One of these teams will need to break away from the other in order to improve its playoff chances. They are hovering around the .500 mark and they’ve split the 16 previous meetings, though the Phils have had the better of play lately winning four straight and five of the last six. The Mets did most of their damage back when they used to be good. They led the division as late as August 5 but won just 15 of their next 37 games to fall off the pace. The Mets haven’t given up on reaching the postseason, but their odds are getting longer. They are $1565 in the red for the season, but they’ve been better at home boasting a 43-30 mark. They also won five of the seven meetings against the Phils at Citi Field.
Leading up to this series the schedule looked favorable. Then the Phillies had to play the games. They lost three of four to the Rockies, who were 30 games under .500 on the road then they dropped a game to the Cubs, who are in a free fall since the trade deadline. Still, the Phils are in a better situation than the Mets putting added importance on the game. They will need to continue a trend that’s seen them win five of the last six head-to-head matchups while holding the Mets to three runs or less in six of the last seven meetings with the UNDER 6-1 in those games.
Probable Pitchers
Aaron Nola: The guy has ace stuff but he’s been ineffective and snake bit over the last two months. He hasn’t won a game since July 25 when he stymied the Braves on four hits over 8.2 frames. In nine starts since then he’s 0-2 with a 5.10 ERA, though he hasn’t pitched poorly. Two bad outings in that span skewed the numbers and he’s completed six innings just twice in that stretch. He held Colorado scoreless through four innings in his last start before allowing three runs in the fifth. In his three starts this month he’s yielded at least three runs each time giving up 17 hits and three homers over 14.1 innings for a 7.53 ERA. In three starts against the Mets this season Nola has a 2.51 ERA with 24 strikeouts over 14.1 innings. He hasn’t received much support, though, with his mates plating just one run in his last two outings. He’s made nine career starts at Citi Field going 4-3 with a 3.93 ERA over 50.1 innings. He blanked the Mets on two hits with 12 punchouts over 5.1 innings on June 25.
Carlos Carrasco: The Mets are scheduled to counter with Carrasco, who has been more effective lately. He got a late start to the season spending most of the time on the IL before debuting with the team in late July. He struggled when first returning but has pitched better of late going 1-1 with a 3.62 ERA over his last five starts. He has a 1.06 WHIP and opponents are hitting just .214 against him in that span. He got a ND in his last start giving up three hits and two runs in 5.0 innings against the Mets. He also struggled with his control walking a season-high four batters. He hadn’t issued more than one free pass in any of his previous eight starts. He also tossed a season-high 96 pitches. The Mets won each of his last three starts cashing the OVER each time.
Phillies at Mets Prediction
If the Phils are going to make a postseason run they need Nola to take command. He has the ability and he’s been terrific against the Mets this season and over his career. I don’t expect a lot of offense in this one leading me to back the UNDER with Nola having another strong outing.
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