The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees will square off in the middle game of a three-game series on Wednesday with the game broadcast live on ESPN. While the Sox are seemingly running away with the AL East, the Yankees have plenty to play for as they try to stay ahead of the Oakland A’s for the top AL Wild Card spot. Boston, meanwhile, would like nothing more than to deprive them of homefield advantage in that game as they look to extend their recent dominance over the Bronx Bombers.
First pitch for the game between the Red Sox and Yankees is scheduled for Wednesday, September 19, 2018, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
A four-game sweep of the Yankees by the Red Sox the last time these two teams met was enough to shift the season series in Boston’s favor, 8-5. In addition to the three-game edge head-to-head, Boston has also outscored the Yankees by 19 runs in those 13 games.
Offensively, the Red Sox are the only team in baseball to have outscored the Yankees overall, plating 795 runs to the Yankees 761. The Sox have a better average, on-base percentage, far more doubles, and more triples; but the Yankees live up to the nickname of being the Bronx Bombers with a baseball-leading 240 homers.
The Yankees will be getting Aaron Judge back for this series with the Red Sox which should help them immensely. Even after missing a month, Judge is still the team leader in WAR and has the highest OPS+.
Andrew McCutchen has hit well since joining the Yankees, but Judge is the better hitter at this stage of their careers. Plus, with Judge back, that allows McCutchen to take at bats from Brett Gardner who has a .693 OPS, making the Yankee lineup all the deeper.
With Judge back in the order, the Bronx Bombers have six 20-home run bats, but they also have plenty of swing and miss in their game and rely heavily on the homer to score.
As for the Sox, they’ve got a bit more diverse lineup. Both Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez are near the top of the league in batting average as well as providing homers, RBIs and, in Betts’ case, steals.
Of course, it’s not like Boston can’t hit homers, but they’ve got more doubles and triples. They’re well ahead in total bases and have a better slugging percentage, even with fewer homers. Jackie Bradley Jr. has quietly been a good hitter for a while now after a very slow start with the bat. Steve Pearce has been a huge add to platoon with Mitch Moreland and could be a pinch-hitting factor late in the game.
Probable Pitchers
This primetime showdown on national television will have a pitching matchup worthy of the spotlight with the surging David Price on the mound opposite the struggling Yankee ace, Luis Severino.
Both starters are probably the most crucial for their respective teams to make a run in October. Of course, Chris Sale is the ace for the Sox, but he’s a bit more of a sure thing—provided health—while Price has struggled on the biggest stage in October. Wednesday will be a good dry run for that.
Right now, Price is throwing as well as he has in his Red Sox career. He’s taken the lead in this rotation while Sale’s been out and has done well as a stopper of sorts. He’s 5-0 with a 1.56 ERA in his last nine starts.
There are, however, still concerns about how we’ll far against the Yankees. He’s allowed 14 runs in just 10.1 innings over three starts against them this year and that includes a solid six innings with just two runs in his last start.
That good outing came at home, this game will be on the road where Price is 0-5 with a 10.44 ERA in five starts at Yankee Stadium as a member of the Boston pitching staff.
The main question for the Sox in this game is: which Price will show up? The one that’s been good of late or the one that the Yankees have seeming owned for the past few years.
The Sox have reason to be optimistic. He’s throwing very well right now and they’re 21-7 when he takes the ball this year. Overall, Price has had a fine season with a 15-6 record, 3.42 ERA and 1.105 WHIP. With those numbers all the best he’s produced with the Sox, it’s important to note, his 3.64 FIP is right in line with his career FIP in a Boston uniform.
While Price has pitched his best of late, Severino has been the exact opposite. The Yankee righty is a mere 3-6 with a 6.43 ERA since July 12.
It’s been a rough couple month for the youngster. He’s shown signs of turning the corner here and there, but he’s lost the confidence of his manager who took him out after just 83 pitching while in the sixth inning in his last start for fear he’d fall apart.
Further, while Severino’s had a couple better starts lately, he lasted just 2.2 innings two starts ago against the A’s and had his better performances against teams like the Orioles and Tigers who are well below-.500. How he’ll fare in a start against Boston remains up in the air.
Last time Severino faced the Sox, he struggled, but that was at Fenway Park. Yankee Stadium is a bit different.
All in all, Severino is still a talented pitcher with a 17-8 record, 3.46 ERA and 2.99 FIP. He just needs to get right. Can he do that against the Sox?
Live Betting
If this game becomes a bullpen game, the Yankees seemingly have the advantage though Dellin Betances did blow it for the Yankees on Sunday.
The Yankees still miss Aroldis Chapman who is nearing a return, but likely not ready for Wednesday. They still have Chad Green, David Robertson, Zach Britton and Betances, but each have their issues and aren’t quite as reliable as Chapman.
The Yankees have also added to the pen with the expanded September rosters. Justus Sheffield is the biggest name added. The top prospect dominated the minor leagues and has electric stuff that should play up in the bullpen.
For the Red Sox, the bullpen is potentially the weak link, but it still ranks in the top-5 in baseball in ERA. Craig Kimbrel locks down the ninth innings and Matt Barnes, Bobby Poyner, Ryan Brasier, Brandon Workman, and even Steven Wright all have good numbers while provided different looks and options for Alex Cora.
MLB Pick
Rivalry games are always hard to predict but look for the Red Sox to come out ahead on Wednesday night, even in the Bronx.
Their last head-to-head series was a tough blow for the Yankees as Boston swept New York in four games up at Fenway. The Yankees will be looking for revenge and will have Judge back in the lineup, but the momentum in this season series clearly sits with Boston.
While Price has traditionally struggled against the Yankees, look for him to follow up his last start against them with another strong outing. He’s throwing the ball so well right now that it’s hard to bet against him. Meanwhile, Severino needs to show he can pitch well against a quality offense before he can be counted in another big game.
Look for the Red Sox to score a few times against Severino. They have baseball’s best offense and the young right-hander has been lost for most of the second half of the season. While the bullpen is deep with talent a likely able to stop the bleeding, it may be too late.
Count on the Yankee pen and solid offense to do enough to keep this game close, but the Sox are the better team and Price is pitching much better than Severino right now.
MLB Betting Odds: Red Sox 6, Yankees 4
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