The Colorado Rockies will wrap up a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on Wednesday night. This is an important series for both teams as they remain neck-and-neck atop the NL West. With the Diamondbacks seemingly falling out of contention, it may come down to these two teams over the season’s final two weeks and this will be there last head-to-head contest of the year, at least in the regular season.
First pitch of the game between the Rockies and Dodgers is schedulefor Wednesday, September 19, 2018, at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium. The matchup will be broadcast on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
Heading into this final series, the Dodger hold a slight head-to-head edge over the division leading Rockies, winning nine of 16 matchups, outscoring Colorado by 19 runs in those 16 games.
Given their home ballpark, offense has traditionally been a strong suit of the Rockies and Colorado once again ranks near the top of the NL in runs scored, scoring 701 runs and sporting a .753 OPS. They’re fourth in the NL in runs scored and second in OPS. The Dodgers, on the other hand, are first in both categories, scoring 719 runs and posting a .764 OPS despite a decidedly pitching-favorable home stadium.
Colorado has a better average than the Dodgers this year, but Los Angeles has shown much more patience—with a better OBP—and more pop.
For the Rockies, the offense goes through Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story. Arenado is a perennial MVP candidate that gets overlooked because of his home ballpark while Story is in the running for the award this year with a breakout campaign.
On the year, Arenado has a .934 OPS with 34 home runs and 100 RBIs. Story has a .895 OPS with 33 jacks and 102 runs driven in. Both also provide quality defense on the dirt. Outside of those two, Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, D.J. LeMahieu and David Dahl have put up solid numbers, but the offense has primarily been a two-headed monster with a bit of support. Recently, however, the Colorado offense has gotten more help.
In September, Blackmon has been on fire with a .431 OBP. Matt Holliday has been a nice boost to the order, too. Since he was promoted, he’s been a nice bat off the bench—and occasional starter—with seven walks in nine hits in only 31 plate appearances in the month.
For the Dodgers, Yasiel Puig is on fire. He’s hit six homers and has a .367 average in 12 September games. He’s not the only one seeing the ball very well right now, Chris Taylor, Justin Turner and even Matt Kemp have been making good contact this past month.
David Freese has been a nice bat off the bench, serving in a similar capacity for L.A. to Halliday for the Rockies.
Overall, the Dodgers’ offense is deep. It’s no wonder they’re first in the NL in scoring. There are 10 active players on the team with at least a 107 OPS+ and 240 plate appearances in a Dodger uniform. And that doesn’t even count Freese who has done nothing but hit in his chances since coming over from Pittsburgh.
Probable Pitchers
It’s been about a decade since the Dodgers had a rookie starting pitcher as exciting as Walker Buehler and we all know how that turned out, see: Clayton Kershaw.
Buehler gets the start for the Dodgers in this series finale, coming off an impressive eight-inning shutout performance against the Cardinals.
The 24-year old right-hander is 7-5 with a 2.88 ERA and 0.994 WHIP in 118.2 big league innings. He’s pitched to a 3.14 FIP with 131 strikeouts and a very solid 4.23 K:BB ratio.
The Dodgers are 12-9 when Buehler takes the ball. The hurler has allowed two runs or fewer in eight of his last nine games though the lone exception came against these Rockies who scored four in six innings against him back on September 8.
Given the divisional play, the young righty has faced the Rockies four times already this season and has yet to get a win, going 0-1. Despite the lack of wins, he’s pitched to a very strong 3.24 ERA.
On the other side of this matchup, the Rockies will counter the Dodgers’ young stud with a veteran southpaw in Tyler Anderson.
Anderson has been a solid mid-rotation arm for Colorado this year. His 6-9 record and 4.82 ERA are far from encouraging, but given his home park, that factors out to a 97 ERA+, marking him an average big league starter this year.
The lefty, however, was better than that until recently. Anderson’s found himself in a bit of slump over the last month. On August 14, Anderson had a 3.94 ERA. Since then, he’s made six starts, allowing 28 runs—27 earned—in just 25.1 innings of work.
While his last start was encouraging as he allowed just two runs in six innings against the Giants, it hardly blots out his struggles as a whole over the last month, including his last start against the Dodgers where he allowed four runs in just 2.2 innings.
Live Betting
With the way Anderson’s thrown the last month and the impressive stuff of the Dodgers’ rookie right-hander, it would appear the Dodgers have the advantage on the mound—at least to start the game. They also have the deeper lineup, though the gap there is a bit closer.
The Rockies are a better defensive team than the Dodgers, committing 24 fewer errors, but that’s were their advantage ends. After all, even the Dodgers’ bullpen has an edge over the Rockies.
Colorado made major investments in the late innings this winter and those investments have not paid off this year. The names in the Colorado bullpen are good and the stuff is, too. The production, on the other hand, hasn’t been there. Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw and Chris Rusin all have at least 48 innings pitched and ERAs north of six.
Seunghwan Oh was a solid midseason addition and both Scott Oberg and Adam Ottavino have good numbers, but the bullpen as a whole is spotty at best. Even Wade Davis has been hot and cold this season in the ninth.
On the positive side for the Rockies, however, after a struggle in August, the pen has been much better in September, covering five of six save chances while Davis, McGee and Oberg combining for just one run allowed in 18.2 innings pitched.
For the Dodgers, Kenley Jansen is a more reliable closer than Davis—at least he’s been as much here in 2018, but the options setting him up remain a bit suspect. Jon Axford and Ryan Madson were acquired to help solve that problem, but haven’t done so.
Instead, Pedro Baez and Scott Alexander are severing as the set up options. They’ve done well in Septmeber with a single run in nine innings between them.
The Dodgers now also have Kenta Maeda pitching in relief along with Julio Urias who is finally healthy.
MLB Pick
In addition to a strong offense, what has carried the Rockies to this point in the season has been its surprisingly strong starting pitching.
While Anderson was part of that for most of the season, he’s been the exception over the last month rather than part of the answer.
Anderson looked better in his last start and may be turning the corner again, but the Dodgers’ offense is much better than the Giants’. Look for Los Angeles to get to him for a few runs and knock him out of the game in the sixth. From there, L.A. will have to go against a Colorado bullpen which has been pretty solid the last few weeks. Look for the Rockies pen to hold L.A. mostly in check form there, but the damage will have already been done.
Buehler has proven himself to be an elite Major League starter, already, in his young career. Look for him to shut down the Rockies’ offense, limiting them to a couple runs over six frames. Colorado may be able to chip away a bit in against the middle relievers, but Jansen should be able to close the door in the ninth for a Dodgers’ win in this series finale.
MLB Betting Odds: Dodgers 5, Rockies 4
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