The battle for first place in the NL West commences on Saturday afternoon when the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants pick their series back up from Oracle Park. While the Friars were expected to make some noise within the division and have a realistic shot at cashing World Series futures ticket odds in at online sportsbooks, the Giants never seriously entered the conversation. But through the first month of play, Gabe Kapler’s squad has let it be known the race towards the division pennant is no longer includes just two horses in the Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers. Should Kevin Gausman be fully recovered from the side effects from the coronavirus vaccine, he will toe the bump for the home team in a stellar pitching matchup against Joe Musgrove who is one of a few pitchers that’ve already thrown a no-hitter this season. With that, both offenses should be held in check in the second game of the series.
First pitch for this late afternoon divisional showdown between the division rival San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants is scheduled for Saturday, May 8, 2021, at 4:05 p.m. ET from Oracle Park. The matchup will air live on FS1. Bet on MLB odds, totals and player props at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
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Odds Analysis
Though San Fran just suffered one of the worst losses of the year after coughing up a 6-2 lead in the seventh inning of the second game of Tuesday night’s doubleheader against Colorado, the Giants are still one of the best money earners of the 2021 MLB betting season. The defeat dropped them to 18-12 overall which has amounted to a $500+ rate of return for those that’ve backed them in every game to this point of the season. The team has been nothing if not dominant when playing in the comforts of their own ball park evidenced by their 10-3 record $447. The same can’t be said for the Padres whose 17-13 record has equated to a $75 deficit. That said, the Friars have been a fantastic investment away from Petco Park where they’ve tallied wins in nine of their 13 overall played games; good for a $349 return on investment. Though each currently sits ahead of the Dodgers in the NL East, it’s the defending champs that are still the -530 favorites to win the division followed by San Diego +300 and San Francisco +2000.
Probable Pitchers
Joe Musgrove: Since throwing that no-no against the Texas Rangers in his second start of the season, Musgrove has been unable to get back into the win column. It’s been no fault of his own however with the righty allowing just 11 hits and 9 ER over his last 19 innings of work. If you omit the 5 ER surrendered in his last turn against this same Giants offense, his overall stat line looks that much more impressive. But you can’t and that’s something No. 44 will have in the back of his head when he toes the bump against San Francisco for the second time in less than a week. Mike Tauchman’s 3-run bomb in the third inning immediately put the right-hander behind the 8-ball after taking the ball on limited rest. It was the first long ball Musgrove surrendered to the Giants over three career starts. Surprisingly, he’s been at his best on the road in going 1-1 with a miniscule 1.13 ERA and 0.69 WHIP with the opposition batting .125 against him.
Kevin Gausman: After going 3-3 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through just under 60 innings over 10 2020 starts, Gausman finally looks to be coming into his own as a dominant pitcher at the MLB level. The righty has looked even better in 2021 pitching to a 2.04 ERA and 0.91 WHIP by allowing just 25 hits 4 HR and 9 ER over his 39.2 innings of work through six starts. After giving up a 1st inning home run to Fernando Tatis Jr. in last Sunday’s start, Gausman locked in firing six innings of shutout ball the rest of the way to tally his second win of the season. It represented his first career win against San Diego and moved his ERA to 2.45, WHIP to 1.04 and BAA to .273 through three overall starts. The righty has allowed 1 ER or less in all but one of his six starts to date, and has produced quality starts in all but one of those outings as well.
Padres vs. Giants Prediction
The Friars took two of three from the Giants at home last weekend to move to 6-4 in the last 10 overall meetings. San Diego has played the role of Goliath while San Fran has been forced to settle for the role of David. Even with the venue switched for the rematch and Gausman already handling the Padres less than a week ago, I’m expecting San Diego to exact some revenge come Saturday afternoon with it 7-3 in its last 10 appearances by the bay. As already mentioned, Musgrove took the ball last Sunday on short rest. He’ll be extra rested this time around. Who knows what type of effects Gausman will still be suffering from after initially being bothered by the vaccine? With that, I’ll be looking to back San Diego on the moneyline in this rematch, but will also be looking to target Musgrove’s strikeout prop as well. He was able to strike six Giants out last week on limited rest, and will be pitching on normal rest this time around. Gimme the over there!
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