The Washington Nationals currently bring up the rear of the NL East sitting eight-games under .500. There hasn’t been much to get excited about this team for most of the season, but Davey Martinez’s troops have been showing some signs of life of late. It entered Thursday’s series opener with the NL West leading San Francisco Giants off a hard-fought split with the Rays in Tampa Bay to move to 4-4 its last eight games since dropping five straight at online sportsbooks to close out the month of May. As for the Giants, they entered the series having won or split each of their last five series since getting swept by the Dodgers in their own park. Gabe Kapler’s squad continues to be the best bet in the game through two-plus months. However, I’m starting to wonder if the team is as good as its record indicates, or if they’ve been getting it done with smoke and mirrors. This series will be a great litmus test with the Nats starting to come into their own.
First pitch for this non-divisional NL showdown between the San Francisco Giants and Washington Nationals is scheduled for Saturday, June 12, 2021, at 7:15 p.m. ET from Nationals Park with live coverage airing on FOX. Bet on MLB odds and player props at BookMaker.eu for every day of the season.
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Odds Analysis
Wednesday’s extra inning loss in Texas dropped the Giants to 15 games over .500 for the year. In the process, Buster Posey and company have lined their wagering supporter’s pockets with nearly $1500 worth of baseball betting profit. Most impressive has been the way it’s handled itself outside of Oracle Park with 20 of its wins and over $1K in betting profit earned. Since dropping back-to-back series at San Diego and Colorado in early May, San Fran owns a split in Pittsburgh, sweep in Cincinnati, sweep in Arizona, a series win at the Dodgers and a split with the Rangers. Only the Orioles, Twins and D’backs have cost MLB bettors more money than the Nationals. However, the team entered this series two-games under .500 at home -$532 as opposed to 11-18 on the road -$505. It’s also played .500 ball of late against the likes of the Braves, Phillies and Rays. This will be their first home series in the month of June, and it’s started to heat up on the east coast. Is it time to start buying into the Nats?
Probable Pitchers
Johnny Cueto: The veteran enters his 10th start 4-2 with a 3.70 ERA and 40:8 K/BB ratio. He’s one of many success stories the Giants have had within the starting rotation, and a slight contributor to San Francisco ranking No. 4 in the quality start department. I hit the under in his last start against the Cubs and was lucky to cash the ticket after he conceded six hits 2 HR and 4 runs 3 ER over just 4.1 innings in his third shortest stint of the season. The righty no doubt looks solid on paper, but he’s done so by taking advantage of a very charitable cast of opposition that includes the Mariners, Rockies, Pirates and D’backs. He could thrive here to against a Washington offense ranked No. 26 against right-handed pitching over the last week while averaging a league-worst 3.5 runs per game overall.
Joe Ross: Everything about Ross’s 2-6 record and 4.80 ERA looks to be legit. He’s the owner of a 5.50 FIP, and has conceded 8.1 hits and walked 4.0 batters per nine innings. His 51 Ks in 54.1 innings does however let it be known that he can strike you out, and that’s something he must take advantage of in this spot against a Giants offense that’s gone down via the strikeout 442 times in 1446 at-bats against right-handers to date. Heavily against him performing in this spot is the fact that he’s been peppered in his home starts to the tune of a 7.90 ERA and .302 BAA over three starts and 13.2 innings. Also making this a ripe spot to fade him is his inability to go deep into games as he only just pitched through the sixth inning in his last turn ultimately snapping a six start streak of being unable to do so.
Giants vs. Nationals Prediction
Cueto’s been lined road chalk twice this season and took a no decision in each instance; San Fran split both games. After running up against DeSclafani and Gausman in the first two games, Washington’s lineup is going to be ecstatic to oppose Cueto and that doesn’t bode well for the veteran. I truly think it’s only a matter of time until Cueto plummets back down to earth much like he did last season and the year before that after getting out to a hot start. You know who’s starting to see the ball real well of late? Juan Soto. Juan sees ball and mashes ball. The power hitting left-hander has left the yard once in half of his last eight played games. He’s batting .311 and owns a .873 OPS against righties. Though he’s never seen Cueto’s stuff before, he’s so locked in that I’d highly entertain the thought of throwing some beer money on his home run prop. I’ll also look to back the Nats as short home dogs, and will plan on doing so once the betting lines hit the board because it won’t be the least bit surprising if Washington gets steamed and turns into the short chalk. Let’s go Ross, don’t muck this up!
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