The baseball betting season will be 10 weeks deep once the Sunday nighter between the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs wraps from Wrigley Field. At the outset of 2021, linemakers expected the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers to duke it out for NL Central bragging rights. The Cubs were nothing more than an afterthought in an expected rebuilding year. But that’s why they play the games folks! Entering Friday’s series opener, David Ross’s troops held a slim half-game lead over the Brew Crew and a 3-game lead over the Redbirds. As bad Carlos Martinez has been recently, the odds will be against St. Louis eating into that deficit with Zach Davies coming off his best individual start as a Cub. But with the Cardinals going all-out to avenge the series loss to the Cubs at home from back in late May and Davies owning a career .511 BAA against St. Louis, I’d be hesitant to lay the chalk with the home team in this spot. It does however look ripe for an over investment provided Mother Nature cooperates.
First pitch for this NL Central showdown between the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs is scheduled for Sunday, June 13, 2021, at 7 p.m. ET from Wrigley Field. This week’s Sunday Night Baseball telecast will air live on ESPN. Bet on MLB odds and player props at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
MLB Betting Lines at BookMaker.eu
Odds Analysis
The Cardinals just snapped a six-game losing streak against Cleveland on Wednesday night by coming back to score the 8-2 triumph over the Tribe. The win moved Mike Shildt’s squad two games over the breakeven point for the year 32-30. More importantly, it got them back in the black overall for MLB bettors $26. The team owns identical 16-15 records both at home -$220 and on the road $246 with the over cashing in 31 of their 58 played games. Believe it or not, but Chicago $823 currently checks in as the fourth most lucrative bet in baseball behind only the Giants $1481, Rays $1307 and Red Sox $1018. It however has been the best of those four teams at home where it owns a resounding 21-10 record that’s put upwards of $1K in their supporter’s pockets. As dominant the Cubs bullpen has been No. 2, it comes with little surprise to see the under cashing at a 59 percent clip in their 62 overall played games.
Probable Pitchers
Carlos Martinez: C-Mart had logged quality starts in his two prior outings before getting blown up for 15 ER over the last 4.2 innings of his last two starts. Because of it, the right-hander has seen his ERA swell to 6.21 regardless of his FIP being nearly two runs lower 4.23. He still owns a decent 1.29 WHIP and is only conceding 8.4 hits and 0.6 home runs per nine innings. What’s killed him of late is an elevated BB rate with it up to 9.6/9 over the last week. For the season, it clocks in at 3.3. Still not great, but nowhere near as bad as his recent results suggest. He’s made up for it however with an excelled K rate which stands at an insane 15.3 per nine innings over the last seven days. To date, it’s only 5.9. With that, Martinez could be in line for some positive regression moving forward. It could occur in this one with him already tossing six innings of 2 ER ball at the Cubs back on May 21.
Zach Davies: Heading into the week, I snagged Davies off waivers in my fantasy baseball league just so I had a piece of a starting pitcher going into the Sunday nighter. I debated on starting him in San Diego to kick off the week, and boy was I thrilled to have inserted him into my starting lineup minutes before first pitch. All he did was go on to have the best start of his campaign after tossing six shutout innings of one hit ball at the Padres to tally win No. 2 on the season. But before you get all excited to run to the window and back him in this one against the struggling Cardinals, just know that San Diego got some good wood on him. Unfortunately for the Friars, most of the hard hit balls were launched directly at Cubs defenders. Davies tossed five innings of shutout ball at St. Louis back on May 23, and will enter his second encounter with the Cardinals 2-3 with a 4.19 ERA and .511 BAA against them lifetime.
Cardinals vs. Cubs Prediction
Neither of these starting pitchers figures to miss many bats. Martinez has conceded 117 hits and 60 ER in 117.1 total innings pitched against the Cubs throughout his career. Davies has given up 69 hits and 29 ER in his 62.1 IP against the Redbirds. Anthony Rizzo and both Matt Carpenter and Nolan Arenado will be bats to target on the player props with each owning decided advantages in the batter/pitcher matchups. If the wind isn’t howling in on Sunday night, I’m thinking the MLB betting week closes out with some fireworks; especially if Chicago’s pen is taxed in the two games leading up to the finale. Check BP usage! Should the better arms be unavailable, do yourself a solid and hit the F5/FG offerings. Neither SP should be long for this one – Good Luck!
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