The MLB betting week closes out with what looks to be an excellent pitching matchup on paper with Kwang Hyun Kim set to square off against Dinelson Lamet in the finale of a three-game set between the St. Louis Cardinals and San Diego Padres. Making this week’s ESPN Sunday Night Baseball telecast all the more intriguing is that it pairs two teams currently in the thick of the NL pennant race at online sportsbooks. Entering Thursday, only the San Francisco Giants boasted a better overall record than that of the Redbirds in-league, while the Friars aren’t too far off the pace of either team. Unfortunately for those looking to back the home team, Lamet has only been afforded two innings in each of his three made starts due to injury concerns. On top of that, San Diego will be without the services of Fernando Tatis Jr. and a number of other key components due to coronavirus protocols ultimately making this game extremely tough to cap.
First pitch for this heavyweight NL showdown between the St. Louis Cardinals and San Diego Padres is scheduled for Sunday, May 16, 2021, at 7 p.m. ET from Petco Park. This week’s Sunday Night Baseball telecast will air live on ESPN. Bet on MLB odds and player props at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
MLB Betting Lines at BookMaker.eu
Odds Analysis
Though it just had its four game win streak snapped in Milwaukee, the Cardinals are still playing an extremely competitive brand of ball. That’s reflected in the amount of money the team has reeled MLB bettors in after coming out on top in 22 of its first 37 played games. The end results have amounted to a $430 return on investment for $100 bettors, and the team has been solid away from Busch Stadium in logging 10 wins to seven defeats for a $270 overall return. Since taking two of three at home against the Giants, the Padres have played to a 5-4 record with the two series wins coming against a couple of losing ball clubs in the Pittsburgh Pirates and Colorado Rockies. San Diego currently sits four games over the breakeven point amounting to a -$226 return on investment. Surprisingly, most of the deficit has been incurred at home where the teams logged a disappointing 9-10 overall record -$476 entering Friday night’s series opener.
Probable Pitchers
Kwang Hyun Kim: The South Korean import has stepped into the Cardinals starting rotation and pitched admirably since the middle of April. While nothing about his repertoire jumps off the page and forces MLB bettors to run to the window to invest in his player props, serviceable gets the job done as well; that is if you’re looking to bet on a starting pitcher that’s allergic to giving you quality starts. Not a single one of his five made starts have seen the lefty go six innings and allow three of less ER. That’s a 0% quality start percentage folks! On top of that, his overall stats are sure to regress with him serving up 24 hits through 23 innings and only allowing 7 ER. Strikeouts have been down and walks up in his last two starts as well - not good!
Dinelson Lamet: When healthy, Lamet is arguably one of the more dominating right-handed pitchers in the game. That however isn’t the case right now with the Padres managerial staff treating him with kid gloves in his return from Tommy John surgery. Lamet has already scared the crap out of his fantasy backers once this season, but a little rest has him back on the bump taking a turn every fifth day; for now. In his six combined innings of work, the righty has conceded 6 hits and 1 ER while accruing a dreary 5:2 K/BB ratio. There’s been no news released about upping his innings, so it makes sense to think this will be another scheduled bullpen game for the Friars once the big guy departs. With that, make it a point to see if San Diego was forced to use its better arms out of the pen in the previous two games. If they were all taxed, you might want to take a flier on the over of the Cards’ team total prior to first pitch.
Cardinals vs. Padres Prediction
San Diego’s bullpen has risen to the occasion in all three of Lamet’s outings with each still ending up cashing under tickets once he left prematurely. I’m not so sure that occurs in this one with St. Louis owners of the league’s No. 9 ranked scoring offense 4.6 RPG that’s also launched the eighth most home runs 47. Should the game be of the lower scoring variety through the first two or three innings, I’d put some strong thought into live betting the over at a readjusted market price; especially if San Diego’s lesser arms are to be called upon. Even with the Padres down a number of key bats, they should still be able to do some damage against Kim who’s been getting it done with smoke and mirrors. SD has really struggled to put runs on the board at home in averaging just over 3.0 per game. They should relish this opportunity to improve that output regardless of the fact that the offense has struggled the six times it stared back against left-handed starting pitching. Four of those games came against south paws in the midst of solid seasons in Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Anderson. Kim pales in comparison. I foresee runs hitting the board!
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