A rare off day on Friday will allow these Central Division rivals time to travel south of the border for a brief two-game set in Monterrey, Mexico, concluding with Sunday’s affair on ESPN. The St. Louis Cardinals said enough was enough after missing the playoffs last season and made a huge splash with the acquisition of Paul Goldschmidt.
The Cincinnati Reds also felt it was time to start winning ballgames and made noise of their own by getting Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp. Early results, and better pitching, favor the Cards heading into the first series between the two. The Reds can’t wait to get out of the division with all of their losses coming to NL Central foes in the early going.
This MLB game between the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds will be held at Estadio de Beisbol in Monterrey, Mexico at 4 p.m. ET on Sunday, April 14, 2019. The game will be nationally televised on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
A managerial change and new faces in the lineup, but so far it’s been a lot of the same as far as the results go for the Reds. After claiming a victory in the season opener, they proceeded to lose eight in a row. Cincy isn’t going to be a threat in the division with three teams up the odds list to win the pennant taking up space. But the Reds need to perform better against their Central foes.
Playing outside the division for the first time this season, the Reds showed they aren’t the worst team in the NL by sweeping the Marlins and scoring 21 runs in the process.
The Cards always seem to be lingering at the playoff cut down, they just haven’t been able to crack the code the past few years. That sparked a few changes within the organization and they appear to be back on track. Pitching has been the biggest concern, but one guy who stabilized the rotation last year will take the bump on Sunday with Miles Mikolas facing Anthony DeSclafani.
Probable Pitchers
A three-year stint in Japan not only resurrected his career, it also helped make Mikolas a rich man. Three non-descript seasons in the bigs forced a move overseas and the righty returned a new man by going 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA over 32 starts last year. That prompted the Cards to give him an extension. Both parties are hopeful last year wasn’t a fluke.
It’s been a rocky beginning to the campaign for Mikolas, who has allowed at last three earned runs in each of his three starts, though he lasted a season-high six frames last time out to record his first victory. He also did not surrender a home run for the first time, so there are signs of progress.
Much like his career, the season has been a mixed bag for DeSclafani. The righty showed potential ace flashes a few years back winning nine games in both 2015 and 2016 on some bad teams. He won just seven times last year while the ERA ballooned by nearly a run.
A solid first outing with just one run on three hits and eight Ks over 5.0 innings against the Brewers was encouraging. But DeSclafani was whacked for a pair of homers and six earned in 4.1 frames in a loss to Pittsburgh his last outing. He’s 2-2 with a 4.80 ERA and .319 opponent’s batting average in six career starts against the Cards.
Key Stat
Neither team is tearing the cover of the baseball in the early part of the year. And it’s been more of a struggle for the Reds, who wrapped up a series with the Marlins boasting a team batting average around .200. Cincy was shut out in three straight games and blanked four times overall through their first 12, playing below the closing total on the MLB betting line nine times.
The Reds average 3.50 runs per game with that number bolstered by a 14-0 victory over Miami. It’s scary to think where this team would be without that one game added to their numbers.
Free MLB ATS Picks
It’s hard to trust the Reds lineup to produce enough against Mikolas, who has gotten better over his three starts. And DeSclafani has been erratic and inconsistent, so I have to side with the Cardinals in this one at offshore sportsbooks.
The Estadio de Beisbol plays small and that should lead to some runs being scored giving plenty of value to the over. And the Cards will get most of them.
MLB Betting Odds: St. Louis Cardinals 7, Cincinnati Reds 3
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