To the extent that its possible the Houston Astros are the bad boys of Major League Baseball. Their sign stealing scandal that broke over the past offseason caused outrage from millions of fans and gamblers along with a great deal of the baseball community. Not that sign stealing hasn’t been going on since before radio and television were invented but, hey, it was a pretty elaborate scheme. The scandal took away from the fact that the Astros have been one of the most talented and successful teams over the past six seasons. Their American League Championship Series opponents are the low budget “Moneyball” Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa Bay has few fans and less revenue but wins with complicated metrics that measure players like stocks.
2020 American League Championship Series Odds
Houston Astros +160
Tampa Bay Rays -185
Location: Petco Park, San Diego, California
TV Coverage: TBS
2020 American League Championship Series Schedule (Best of Seven)
Game 1: Sunday, October 11, 7:30 p.m. ET
Game 2: Monday, October 12, TBD
Game 3: Tuesday, October 13, TBD
Game 4: Wednesday, October 14, TBD
Game 5: Thursday, October 15, TBD
Game 6: Friday, October 16, TBD
Game 7: Saturday, October 17, TBD
2020 American League Championship Series Odds Analysis
Despite a lackluster regular season, the Houston Astros will draw considerable public support in the ALCS against the Tampa Bay Rays. Houston has the credibility of four consecutive ALCS appearances with two World Series since 2017, one of which they won. Tampa Bay is still blown off by the masses as a low budget team. Squares continue to ignore the Rays winning methods.
Tampa Bay Rays
This is the second consecutive playoff season for the Tampa Bay Rays and their third consecutive winning season. Tampa Bay is 45-22 and swept the Toronto Blue Jays 2-0 in the wild card playoffs before winning a tight 3-2 American League Championship Series against the New York Yankees. Tampa Bay ranked 12th for runs scored and 14th for home runs. They have bizarre pitching metrics in which they ranked third overall for earned run average but 30th for quality starts. In the regular season Tampa Bay’s bullpen ranked third best in baseball.
Houston Astros
The Astros are barely above .500 at 34-32. In the playoffs Houston swept the Minnesota Twins 2-0 and then took out the Oakland Athletics 3-1 in the American League Divisional Series. Houston’s bullpen has been a playoff strength and ranked fourth overall in the post season. Overall metrics for Houston were pretty ordinary as they ranked 14th in MLB for run production and 19th for home runs. Houston was the top fielding team in MLB and ranked 13th for earned run average. The Astros starting staff ranked sixth for quality starts.
Top Players
In the playoffs Astros shortstop Carlos Correa has had the hot bat with five runs, four home runs, a .500 average, 1.100 slugging percentage and 1.715 OPS. Designated hitter George Springer has eight runs, two doubles, two home runs, seven runs batted in, with a .346 average and 1.047 OPS. Framber Valdez has been Houston’s top starter with a 2-0 playoff record and 1.50 earned run average.
For Tampa Bay left fielder Randy Arozarena has dominated the lineup with eight runs, two doubles, three home runs, four runs batted in, and a .444 batting average with a 1.426 OPS. Starter Tyler Glasnow is 2-0 in the post season with a 4.05 ERA. Reliever Peter Fairbanks has two saves and a 2.25 ERA.
ALCS Bookmaker Free Pick
Tampa Bay will be the better value as a quality team that squares can’t comprehend.
ALCS Bookmaker Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays
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