Presidential Election Betting: At the end of the week, the betting odds moved 13 cents in favor of Democrat Kamala Harris and away from Donald Trump. Although the news has been better for Trump than Harris, bargain hunters can read the RealClearPolitics aggregates and see that they race even, therefore making Harris the bargain value.
In addition to what appear to be even numbers, gamblers are much sharper than the average voter. They are engaged and follow politics for the sport that it has become. Thus, they rightfully respect the Democrat machinery and ability to manufacture votes, even if the enthusiasm is on the other side.
However, Trump remains a solid favorite to be elected. And the reason is enthusiasm. The Donald does not need to entice voters to his rallies with the implication that celebrities and pop culture icons will be there to perform only to leave after an abrupt endorsement. Trump is drawing massive crowds and social media interaction for being who he is, although in a more disciplined and appealing way than his first two presidential campaigns.
2024 U.S. Presidential Election Betting Odds
U.S. 2024 Next President Elected
| U.S. 2024 NEXT PRESIDENT ELECTED |
| Kamala Harris +150 |
Donald Trump -172 |
J.D. Vance +55000 |
| Tim Walz +150000 |
- |
- |
U.S. Presidential Election 2024 - Winning Party
Democratic Party +150
Republican Party -173
Other Party +100000
*Odds as of Friday, November 1, 2024
The Garbage Collector
On Tuesday, as Kamala Harris was making her closing argument in front of the White House, President Joe Biden was on a conference call with Hispanics. When the conversation turned to an insult comic who said Puerto Rico was a floating island of garbage, Biden retorted that Trump supporters were garbage.
By calling half the electorate garbage, Biden did not help the Harris cause and perhaps hurt it, although many Democrats and one of Harris’ billionaire donors doubled down in agreement with the charge. The question is whether or not independents and low-propensity Republican voters will be more motivated to back Trump after the insults.
As for Trump, he once and for all proved that he is the GOAT of political trolling. The following day in Green Bay, Trump rode around in his new garbage truck while rocking an orange mesh vest at his packed campaign rally. It was another case of Trump turning a loss into a win and putting Harris and the Democrats on the defensive, at least for one news cycle. Between working at McDonald’s and the garbage truck, Trump is validated as the greatest political showman of all time.
At the beginning of the week, the Trump campaign was in damage control over the comedian who went rogue after having his script carefully vetted by the Trump campaign at an otherwise epic Madison Square Garden rally. But when Biden fumbled the football, Trump made an easy scoop and scored.
Harris the Faux Unifier
After calling Trump and, by extension, his supporters fascists, nazis, racists, and related, Harris pivoted to say that everyone would be welcome at her table when she wins. Appealing to those who were labeled such vile names is truly sickening, but the question is if more emotional female voters can see through the play action fake.
The Pick
Donald Trump has run as flawless of a campaign as he possibly could. The Democrats and Harris have failed the country at the border, the checkout aisle, at the gas pump, and when voters open their bills. Their social policies are so extreme as to be insane. Sending billions of dollars to an Oligarch Mafia crime family in Ukraine when Americans are suffering is unconscionable, as is giving illegal immigrants better benefits than actual citizens.
BUTT…
The Democrats have vastly superior machinery and can manufacture votes far more effectively than Republicans. Their shameless and underhanded tactics are already being exposed in Pennsylvania, where voters were given three extra days to vote early by a judge after Democrat chicanery to suppress votes was discovered, and in Virginia, where a “judge” tried to make it legal for non-citizens to vote, only to be reversed by the Supreme Court. Many other reports of attempted Republican voter suppression have been posted on social media. The Republicans are far more prepared than in 2020, but it remains to be seen if it will be enough.
In the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona, the governors are Democrats and have great influence over the machinery.
Finally, Democrats are much more shameless and brazenly daring about doing whatever it takes to win.
In an even race, Donald Trump has most of the people, but Kamala Harris has the machinery to crank out more votes. She offers more value at the underdog price.
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