Last week there were two contradictory polls that sum up the 2020 election to perfection. Presumptive Democrat nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, is seen by a majority of voters as a man suffering from the beginning stages of dementia. Despite that Biden has a double-digit lead in the polls over President Donald Trump. Just as bizarre is that all of the civil unrest ignited because of police brutality and racism that took place in cities run lock, stock, and barrel by Democrats for multiple generations.
Yet voters see the Republicans and most of all Trump as useless in stopping the carnage. It’s becoming evident that Tucker Carlson was on to something in his epic monologue from a couple of weeks ago when he said “voting doesn’t work.” These are the dynamics that have made an incoherent man hiding in his basement the betting favorite to become President of the United States.
2020 US Presidential Election Odds
Donald Trump +150
Joe Biden -171
All Others +7000 or greater
2020 Democrat Vice Presidential Nominee Odds
Kamala Harris -127
Stacey Abrams +3850
Elizabeth Warren +1300
Val Demings +590
Michelle Obama +2300
Susan Rice +485
Keisha Lance Bottoms +1800
All Others +4500 or Higher
2020 US Presidential Election Odds Overview and Analysis
Any time that an incumbent President is up for reelection the vote is going to be a referendum on the performance of that President. A sluggish economy took out incumbent Presidents Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992. Good economies helped reelect Ronald Reagan in 1984, Bill Clinton in 1996, and George W. Bush in 2004. Civil and racial unrest forced Lyndon Johnson to renounce his reelection bid in 1968 after winning a massive landslide in 1964. All of which helps explain the Trump quandary.
Trump’s Real Problem
The one-third of the electorate with “Trump Derangement Syndrome” is not Donald Trump’s problem. Those voters would call for his removal if he cured cancer. In fact, some of them would scream that they wanted cancer just because Trump cured it. Meanwhile the mushy middle came that came over to Trump secretly in 2016 is certainly in play and leaning Biden but not yet ready to commit.
But Trump’s biggest problem is his own base. The famed “Deplorables” see Trump as too passive at stopping the rioting and looting. While they will never vote Democrat and realize that the worst of the unrest, violence, police brutality, and racial injustice is taking place in Democrat cities, they don’t see Trump as doing enough to stem the tide. To the Deplorables the entire American political system is seen as totally broken beyond repair. They have lost enthusiasm. And they may not vote. Trump’s all caps tweets about “LAW AND ORDER” are of no value to these voters. They want action.
Trump Begins Counter Offensive
Over the past weekend President Trump began trying to show the Deplorables that he is not sitting by and just tweeting. He tweeted out “wanted” posters of several individuals that allegedly destroyed federal property and promised maximum sentences. He made a show of his efforts at protecting national monuments. He vowed to have hundreds arrested for inciting riots. While it was a start many in the Trump base demand much more. When they look at occupied areas of Seattle, fires in Portland, unresponsive cops in Minneapolis, and protestors terrorizing restaurant patrons in Washington, DC they don’t like what they see. Furthermore, what they don’t see is a functional difference between the Democrats and Republicans.
Nothing to Lose
What President Trump has failed to grasp is that with a COVID-19 decimated economy and a revolution taking the streets voters are demanding strong action. It’s not that a majority of these voters believe in the Democrats. Instead its that they no longer believe in Trump. If enough of these voters stay home in November, Biden will win.
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