Whether or not President Donald Trump impressed enough voters at the 2020 Republican National Convention remains to be seen. One thing for sure is that he is impressing gamblers in a very big way. Trump has gone from a decided underdog to basically even and with momentum for his reelection fight against Democrat nominee Joe Biden. Trump and the Republicans put on a show with vastly superior optics compared to the dour Democrats Zoom meeting videos. As a result, the President has earned himself a reset for the upcoming election campaign. But there is a long way to go with unknown events that will unfold in the weeks to come. Most worrisome of all is the Trump Twitter account. Too many times in the past he as “stepped in it.” Can he maintain discipline over the next two months? Just as important can Biden and the Democrats shake off the image as being soft on riots?
2020 US Presidential Election Odds
Donald Trump -103
Joe Biden -123
2020 US Presidential Election: Tuesday, November 3, 2020
2020 US Presidential Election Odds Overview and Analysis
Over the past three weeks President Trump has gained roughly 65 cents on the betting line with gamblers. Much of this can be attributed to the utter chaos and violent riots taking part in Democrat cities. But so too did the Republicans pull of a tremendous convention that earned grudging praise from some usually harsh critics. Trump has somehow dug himself out of the ditch. But now the real test begins.
Democrat Dilemma
In almost all cases a political party will get a “bounce” right after its convention, meaning a spike in the polls. Biden and the Democrats not only failed to get a bounce but they lost ground in key swing states such as Michigan, were the election could well be decided. Biden was polling ahead in the Wolverine State before his convention. At the conclusion of the Democrat National Convention he ended up two points BEHIND Trump in Michigan. And that was BEFORE the Republican Convention even began.
Even more profound was the dramatic change in Democrat messaging in the middle of last week. After three months of silence the Democrats finally came out against violent riots. In most cases their denunciations came three or four paragraphs down after their politically correct platitudes but still they did come.
Poker players would say this change in messaging is the ultimate “tell.” When you are three months late to the party at denouncing the burning of cities, beatings, murder, mayhem, blocking roads, and all the rest it can mean only one thing. Your poll numbers are in free fall.
Sour Lemon Whines to Fredo
One of the great clues as to what is really going on came form one of the most unreliable sources in all of politics. CNN commentator Don Lemon whined to fellow propagandist Chris “Fredo” Cuomo that the Democrat polls were being damaged by all of the violence. Also chiming in was hard left CNN analyst Van Jones, who finally found some empathy for real Americans after three months of silence during the violence. All three of these Democrat shills have access to the Democrat’s internal polls. Those are the real polls that the public never gets to see. If CNN’s Three Stooges admit the polls are turning against the Democrats its even worse than what we know.
Gamblers Know the Score
There are few groups of people as unsentimental as gamblers. They’d bet against their own grandmothers if they saw a win. All told the typical bettor is far more objective than a “journalist” or “news” production. And what the betting public sees is that Trump has seized the momentum heading into the fall campaign. And they see Joe “Hidin’” Biden in his basement unable to answer the bell.
This election is a referendum on Trump. All the Democrats had to do was be sane. It’s starting to look like that ain’t gonna happen.
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