Liverpool’s hopes of repeating in the Champions League took a big hit in the Spanish capital last month. The Reds fell to Atletico Madrid 1-0 from a fourth-minute goal from Saul Niguez, and that means they must defeat Atletico in Anfield on Wednesday to advance to the quarterfinals. That won’t be easy given how tenacious Diego Simeone’s club is on defense, but Liverpool are an odds-on favorite to pick up the win per the Champions League betting odds. Getting to the next round will be more difficult though due to the away goals rule.
Don't miss the Champions League action from Anfield at Liverpool, England at 3 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 11, 2020. Catch every moment of the match live on TNT.
Liverpool -175
Atletico Madrid +514
Draw +298
Over/Under 2 and 2.5
Odds Analysis
It’s been a disappointing domestic campaign for Atletico Madrid. The club is in fifth place in the La Liga standings with an 11-12-4 record, and the loss of Antoine Griezmann has left them without much scoring power. Atletico have only notched 31 goals in 27 league matches, and they have been forced to rely on their back line even more than in the past few years.
The long-awaited Premier League title is nearly in Liverpool’s hands. The Reds are 27-1-1 in league play, and they are 25 points up on Manchester City. They won’t be able to clinch the title against rival Everton in Goodison Park like they were hoping a few weeks ago, but they could lock up the league the following week.
Key Injuries
Thomas Lemar is unlikely to play against Liverpool this weekend due to a thigh injury he picked up in the first leg. Lemar has sat out the last three weeks due to the injury.
Liverpool received bad news earlier this week when it was announced that Alisson would miss a month due to a groin injury. The Reds’ star goalkeeper has been an instrumental part of the team’s success, so they will have to hope that Adrian is an adequate replacement. Nathaniel Clyne, Yasser Larouci, and Xherdan Shaqiri are all slated to miss this game, while Andrew Robertson and Jordan Henderson are probable.
Matchup to Watch
In the first leg, Liverpool was unable to break through Atletico’s back line. The Reds only had two real opportunities, and they finished the game with no shots on goal through 90 minutes. It was a stunning display from Atletico’s defense, and they will be out to match that effort in Anfield.
Liverpool boasts one of the best attacks in all of Europe. Mo Salah, Sadio Mane, and Roberto Firmino are an incredibly deadly trio up top, and they have picked apart some of the best defenses on the continent. They were sensational in leading the Reds to the Champions League title last year, but they will be facing a formidable back line.
Jan Oblak is one of the best goalkeepers in the world. He has been phenomenal for the last few seasons, and he has flourished in this system. Felipe and Stefan Savic have been a great center back pairing, while Kieran Trippier can race up the wing and create plays as he did with Spurs.
Free Soccer Betting Pick
Atletico Madrid blew a 2-0 lead to Juventus in the Round of 16 last year, and I think they will squander this lead on Wednesday. Liverpool simply possess too many offensive weapons, and Atletico won’t be able to counter. A road goal would make things very interesting, but I don’t see it happening with what we have seen from Alvaro Morata, Diego Costa, and Joao Felix this campaign.
Champions League Odds: Liverpool 2, Atletico Madrid 0
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