Tuesday Champions League Picks

By  Jonathan Willis

Friday, March 8th, 2019

Half the Champions League Quarterfinals field is set. Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur, Ajax, and Porto have already qualified for the final eight, and two more teams will be looking to join them on Tuesday when Juventus hosts Atletico Madrid and Manchester City hosts FC Schalke 04.

Atletico Madrid are sizable favorites to advance after an impressive performance in the first leg. Diego Simone’s back line held firm in the face of Juventus’ attack, and they eventually broke through on the counter late. Jose Maria Gimenez and Diego Godin scored in the 78th and 83rd minutes to put Atletico up 2-0 heading into the second leg in Turin, and Juventus will have a tough time winning by multiple goals.

In the other match, everyone is expecting Manchester City to advance after beating Schalke 3-2 in Germany in the first leg. Three road goals mean that Schalke likely have to win by two goals in order to advance, as even a 2-1 Schalke win here puts City through as a result of away goals. However, we’ve already seen Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain blow road leads and end up crashing out at home, so you can’t punch City’s ticket just yet.

Champions League Betting Odds at BookMaker.eu
Juventus -144
Atletico Madrid +429
Draw +258
Over/Under 2 and 2.5

It’s time for Cristiano Ronaldo to show up. Ronaldo has been pretty underwhelming in the Champions League this season. He is leading Serie A in scoring, but Juventus acquired him with the aim of winning Europe’s top honor, and he has scored just once in seven Champions League games this campaign.

Atletico are going to be tough to score against. This is a team that defends exceptionally well, and their ability to hold the line in the first leg was superb. Juventus had only a handful of good chances, and every time they pushed forward, they left themselves exposed at the back. That allowed Atletico to counter, and if it wasn’t for VAR, Atletico might have taken an insurmountable 4-0 lead into the return leg.

The visitors aren’t going to try anything new here or get too cute. This is a defensively sound club that will be content to play defense (especially with a two-goal lead) and wait for the right opportunity to strike. Antoine Griezmann can jumpstart a counter out of nothing, and he will be paired with a hard-nosed scorer in Diego Costa or a star-crossed talent trying to rebrand himself in Alvaro Morata. I think they will get a goal on the counter and make it incredibly difficult for Juventus to go through.

Manchester City -659
FC Schalke 04 + 1519
Draw +674
Over/Under 3.5

Oh, what could have been. Schalke benefited from two Manchester City penalties inside the box to go up 2-1 right before halftime in the first leg, and things looked picture perfect after Nicolas Otamendi picked up a red card in the 68th minute. However, City came back as Leroy Sane scored in the 85th and Raheem Sterling put the visitors ahead in the 90th to give them a commanding position.

There is a real fatigue factor for City. They are involved in three different competitions at this point, but their depth has been tested due to injury. Six different City players are nicked up, and a Tuesday game after an underrated clash with Watford over the weekend could really test their mettle.

It’s likely not enough to keep them from advancing, but Schalke could get a draw in the second leg. That would do them no good in the grand scheme of things, but City wouldn’t mind settling for a draw, and they would likely take the air out of the ball if the score was tied late.

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