The winner of Group A will be determined this Sunday when Italy and Wales square off in both countries’ final Group Stage game. Italy currently leads the group with six points, while Wales has four points after knocking off Turkey in their last match. The Azzurri have already assured themselves of a place in the knockout rounds, and Wales has likely done enough considering they have a five-goal advantage on Switzerland.
Don't miss a second of EURO 2020. This match will be held at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome, Italy at 12 p.m. ET. Catch every moment of the match live on ESPN2.
UEFA EURO 2020 Odds at BookMaker.eu
Italy -208
Wales +817
Draw +305
Over/Under 2 and 2.5
Odds Analysis
We’ve seen the chalk largely hold up at EURO 2020, and it all started with Group A last Friday. After a scoreless first half, Italy ran riot with three second half goals to beat Turkey 3-0. The Azzurri beat Switzerland by the same score line on Wednesday thanks to a brace from Manuel Locatelli, and Ciro Immobile scored in his third straight game with the national team.
Wales were fortunate to get a draw in their first match with Switzerland. The Swiss had twice as many shots and twice as much possession, but they wasted their opportunities in front of goal. Kieffer Moore leveled in the 74th minute to get the Dragons a point.
The Welsh were much better against Turkey on Wednesday. Aaron Ramsey scored just before halftime to give Wales a 1-0 lead, and Connor Roberts sealed the deal with a second goal late in extra time. That victory likely sent Wales into the knockout rounds, and it probably doomed Turkey to an early exit.
It’s been nigh impossible to score on Italy. The Azzurri have held their opponent scoreless for 10 straight matches coming into this game. They last conceded a goal against the Netherlands back on October 14, 2020.
Italy are not allowing goals, but they aren’t playing the slow, boring game that defined them in the past either. They are playing more wide-open soccer, and they have scored multiple goals in all 10 of those matches. Ciro Immobile has been exceptional up top, but we’ve also seen great play out of Lorenzo Insigne, Andrea Belotti, Nicolo Barella, and Manuel Locatelli too.
Jorginho has been very strong in the midfield. He isn’t going to score a ton of goals since he focuses more on defense and getting his attackers going, but he is one of the lynchpins for this team. It will be up to him to keep Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey from breaking out on the counter.
Matchup to Watch
Captain Gareth Bale has not been the goal scoring juggernaut he was in the past for Wales. Bale has 33 goals in 94 matches with the national team, and he netted three goals at the 2016 European Championships. However, he has not scored a goal for Wales in well over a year, and that has hampered the effectiveness of this attack.
It will be difficult for Bale to break through against Italy. The Italians are strong in the back, and Gianluigi Donnarumma has been strong in goal. However, they will be without captain Giorgio Chiellini after he came off injured against Switzerland on Wednesday. Chiellini is reportedly dealing with a hip flexor issue, so he is not going to be in the lineup for this match.
Free EURO 2020 Betting Pick
Don’t be surprised if Wales breaks Italy’s scoreless streak. This defense won’t be the same without Chiellini, and Italy may rest other players while looking ahead to the knockout rounds. They will do enough to get a result from this match though.
EURO 2020 Odds: Italy 1, Wales 1
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