The most played match at major international tournaments will decide the first spot in the European Championship finals on Sunday. Italy and Spain are familiar foes at this point, and they met in the Round of 16 at the 2016 Euros. The Azzurri beat La Roja 2-0 to advance to the quarterfinals in that match, and they are slight favorites to best Spain once again. However, Spain is tied with Germany as the most successful team in the history of this competition with three titles, and they have won two of the last three Euros.
Don't miss a second of EURO 2020. This match will be held at Wembley Stadium in London, England at 3 p.m. ET on Tuesday, July 6, 2021. Catch every moment of the match live on ESPN.
UEFA EURO 2020 Odds at BookMaker.eu
Italy +144
Spain +217
Draw +225
Over/Under 2 and 2.5
Odds Analysis
Italy has been arguably the most impressive team in the Euros. They won all three of their matches in the Group Stage, and they didn’t allow a single goal. The Azzurri needed more than 90 minutes to beat Austria in the Round of 16, but they took care of business against Belgium in the quarterfinals. Italy beat FIFA’s No. 1 ranked team in the world 2-1 thanks to brilliant goals from Nicolo Barella and Lorenzo Insigne.
It’s been a more difficult tournament for Spain. They finished second in their group with just one victory in the Group Stage. They needed extra time to beat Croatia 5-3 in a back-and-forth thriller, and they ended up going to penalties with Switzerland. Fortunately, the Swiss weren’t nearly as reliable with their penalties as they were against France, leading to Spain advancing to the semifinals.
In the nine previous matches between these teams at the Euros, Italy has won four times and there have been four draws. Spain has only knocked off Italy one time in this tournament, and it won’t be easy for La Roja to change that pattern.
The big concern for Spain is the team’s lack of quality attacking options. Although they poured in the goals against both Slovakia and Croatia, they have had a much more difficult time scoring against their other three opponents. They had 28 shots against Switzerland in the quarterfinals, but their lone goal was an own goal in the eighth minute of play. Alvaro Morata has had a difficult time breaking through, and young players like Ferran Torres, Dani Olmo, and Mikel Oyarzabal need more seasoning at the international level.
The Italians have looked much better on the attack. This midfield knows when to come forward and help create chances as Nicolo Barella, Manuel Locatelli, and Marco Verratti have all shown themselves to be capable of leading the charge. Lorenzo Insigne and Ciro Immobile can both make things happen in the final third, and Andrea Belotti has had his share of moments as well.
Matchup to Watch
The Spanish strikers won’t have an easy time getting past Italy’s back line. Center backs Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci were both superb against Belgium, frustrating Romelu Lukaku throughout the match. Leonardo Spinazzola had an up-and-down performance but saved a goal with his backside, and it appears that you have to beat Italy through the wings. Spain has had a hard time doing that consistently.
Free EURO 2020 Betting Pick
Oddsmakers have these teams somewhat evenly matched, but Italy has looked much better than Spain throughout this tournament. The Italians have more balance and can create more chances with their superb midfield, so they are the play on Tuesday afternoon against the Spaniards.
EURO 2020 Odds: Italy 2, Spain 0
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