Steve Erceg is favored against Kai Kara-France at UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya on Sunday, August 18, 2024 in Perth, Australia, but note that because of the time difference, it will start on Saturday night, August 17 Eastern Time. This event is one of five fights on the main pay-per-view card. Kara-France is 24-11 in his career, while Erceg is 12-2 in his career. There are a total of 12 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View, four on ESPN2/ESPN+, and three on ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass at UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya. Let’s look at the bout between Kara-France and Erceg and UFC predictions.
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya takes place at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia on Sunday, August 18, 2024 but note that because of the time difference, it will start on Saturday night, August 17 Eastern Time with 12 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View, four on ESPN2/ESPN+, and three on ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass.
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya Betting
Kai Kara-France (24-11, 7-4 UFC)
Kara-France came into the UFC with a record of 17-7 and he has seven wins and four losses in the UFC. He defeated Elias Garcia by unanimous decision, Raulian Paiva by split decision, Mark De La Rosa by unanimous decision, Tyson Nam by unanimous decision, Rogério Bontorin by KO, Cody Garbrandt by TKO, and Askar Askarov by unanimous decision; while losing to Brandon Moreno by unanimous decision, Brandon Royval by guillotine choke submission, Brandon Moreno by TKO, and Amir Albazi by split decision. Kara-France has been a pro since 2010 and he has 11 wins by TKO/KO and three by submission. He has 12 first round finishes.
Steve Erceg (12-2, 3-1 UFC)
Erceg came into the UFC with a record of 9-1 and he has three wins and one loss in the UFC. He defeated David Dvorák by unanimous decision, Alessandro Costa by unanimous decision, and Matt Schnell by KO; while losing to Alexandre Pantoja by unanimous decision. Erceg has been a pro since 2016 and he has two wins by TKO/KO and six by submission. He has five first round finishes.
Erceg said this to mmajunkie.usatoday.com about his upcoming fight against Kara-France, “I think he is very dangerous, but I think I’m slightly more dynamic. I stay away from certain weapons of his, and I think I’d have more ways to win on the feet. We’re going to try to be killing each other from the first bell, and I’m going to try and knock him out.”
“He’s very good on the feet,” Erceg also said to the media, “Obviously the biggest weapon he has is his overhand, so a lot of the things I’m trying to do is to make sure either I can counter it or I can get out of the way of it. People are gonna say, ‘Why don’t you just take him down?’ Well he’s very good at stopping people from taking him down, and even when you gets taken down, he’s good at getting to the turtle and switching out, that sort of thing. I’ve watched his game plenty, I do have plans based around those skills — what he does well, what he does poorly — and we’ll see if they work; that’s all you can do.”
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Kara-France 4.57 / Erceg 4.52
Striking Accuracy: Kara-France 39% / Erceg 49%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Kara-France 3.24 / Erceg 4.20
Defense: Kara-France 65% / Erceg 52%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Kara-France 0.63/ Erceg 1.24
Takedown Accuracy: Kara-France 33% / Erceg 26%
Takedowns defended: Kara-France 88% / Erceg 60%
Submission average: Kara-France 0.0/ Erceg 0.5
UFC Picks
Erceg is listed as a -160 favorite in UFC betting odds with the rounds listed at 2.5 and the over at -260. Kara-France has not fought in over a year and he is coming off consecutive losses. This is not the best spot for his return against a fighter in Erceg who accounted himself well in a loss to Alexandre Pantoja for the flyweight title. I like what I have seen from Erceg so I will lay the small UFC betting price and take Erceg in this fight.
| DATE | FIGHTERS | MONEY LINE |
| 08/17 | Israel Adesanya | -125 |
| Dricus Du Plessis | -105 |
| 08/17 | Steve Erceg | -160 |
| Kai Kara France | +127 |
| 08/17 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | -220 |
| Tai Tuivasa | +172 |
| 08/17 | Valter Walker | +110 |
| Junior Tafa | -140 |
| 08/17 | Ricky Glenn | +150 |
| Song Kenan | -190 |
| 08/17 | Carlos Prates | -345 |
| Li Jingliang | +258 |
| 08/17 | Ricardo Ramos | +120 |
| Josh Culibao | -150 |
| 08/17 | Herbert Burns | +524 |
| Jack Jenkins | -850 |
| 08/17 | Alex Reyes | +737 |
| Tom Nolan | -1450 |
| 08/17 | Dan Hooker | +250 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | -333 |
| 08/17 | Stewart Nicoll | -240 |
| Jesus Aguilar | +186 |
| 08/17 | Luana Santos | -160 |
| Casey O’Neill | +127 |
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