Sean O’Malley is slightly favored against Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili on Saturday, September 14 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This event is one of five fights on the main pay-per-view card. O’Malley is 18-1 in his career, while Dvalishvili is 17-4 in his career. There are a total of 10 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View, four on ESPNews/ESPN+, and one on ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass at UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili. Let’s look at the bout between O’Malley and Dvalishvili and UFC predictions.
UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili takes place at the Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, September 14 with 10 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View, four on ESPNews/ESPN+, and one on ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass.
UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili Betting
Sean O’Malley (18-1, 10-1 UFC)
O’Malley came into the UFC with a record of 8-0 and he has 10 wins and one loss in the UFC. He defeated Terrion Ware by unanimous decision, Andre Soukhamthath by unanimous decision, José Alberto Quiñónez by TKO, Eddie Wineland by KO, Thomas Almeida by KO, Kris Moutinho by TKO, Raulian Paiva by TKO, Petr Yan by split decision, Aljamain Sterling by TKO, and Marlon Vera by unanimous decision; while losing to Marlon Vera by TKO in August of 2020. O’Malley has been a pro since 2015 and he has 12 wins by TKO/KO and one by submission. He has nine first round finishes.
O’Malley said this to sherdog.com about his upcoming fight against Dvalishvili, I’m going to show up, get into an Octagon — the same Octagon I always step into — and do what I do. The whole presentation, the whole show, I’m really not going to enjoy it like a bystander. For me, (I’m) laser focused, tunnel vision, kill Merab — that’s all that’s on my mind. I don’t really care about all that extra stuff. It’ll be cool for the fans, but I have a mission. He's ranked No. 1. He's on a 10-fight win streak. The only reason he's never fought for a title or was never the champion is because Aljamain Sterling was there. He’s as dangerous as it gets, cardio machine. He doesn't get tired. He's been rocked a few times, but he's got a good chin. He got rocked hard from Marlon Moraes and ended up finishing him. So he's very durable. He's got good cardio. He's obviously skilled. He's on a 10-fight win streak. He's very, very dangerous.”
Merab Dvalishvili (17-4, 10-2 UFC)
Dvalishvili came into the UFC with a record of 7-2 and he has 10 wins and two losses in the UFC. He defeated Terrion Ware by unanimous decision, Brad Katona by unanimous decision, Casey Kenney by unanimous decision, Gustavo Lopez by unanimous decision, John Dodson by unanimous decision, Cody Stamann by unanimous decision, Marlon Moraes by TKO, José Aldo by unanimous decision, Petr Yan by unanimous decision, and Henry Cejudo by unanimous decision; while losing to Frankie Saenz by split decision and Ricky Simón by technical submission. Dvalishvili has been a pro since 2014 and he has three wins by TKO/KO and one by submission. He has one first round finish.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: O’Malley 7.63 / Dvalishvili 4.50
Striking Accuracy: O’Malley 61% / Dvalishvili 41%
Strikes absorbed per minute: O’Malley 3.52 / Dvalishvili 2.37
Defense: O’Malley 62% / Dvalishvili 57%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: O’Malley 0.35/ Dvalishvili 6.43
Takedown Accuracy: O’Malley 42% / Dvalishvili 36%
Takedowns defended: O’Malley 62% / Dvalishvili 80%
Submission average: O’Malley 0.3/ Dvalishvili 0.3
UFC Picks
We should get a lot of excitement from the main event with O’Malley battling Dvalishvili. O’Malley has been superb in his career with only one loss and he avenged that defeat last time out with a dominant win over Marlon Vera. Dvalishvili comes in having won his last 10 bouts and appears to be a worthy challenger to O’Malley. Even though Dvalishvili has won his last 10 bouts, I don’t see many great fighters on his list of victims. There is definitely no one who compares to O’Malley. I am a little bit surprised the UFC betting odds on O’Malley are not higher. We know what he can do and I am not sure yet if Dvalishvili is on a championship level. I’ll lay the small price in UFC odds and take O’Malley in this fight.
| DATE | FIGHTERS | MONEY LINE |
| 09/14 | Merab Dvalishvili | +115 |
| Sean Omalley | -145 |
| 09/14 | Valentina Shevchenko | +115 |
| Alexa Grasso | -145 |
| 09/14 | Diego Lopes | -180 |
| Brian Ortega | +143 |
| 09/14 | Aoriqileng | +524 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | -850 |
| 09/14 | Norma Dumont | -110 |
| Irene Aldana | -120 |
| 09/14 | Ignacio Bahamondes | +105 |
| Manuel Torres | -135 |
| 09/14 | Ode Osbourne | +105 |
| Ronaldo Rodriguez | -135 |
| 09/14 | Ketlen Souza | +351 |
| Yazmin Jauregui | -500 |
| 09/14 | Esteban Ribovics | +186 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | -240 |
| 09/14 | Edgar Chairez | +172 |
| Joshua Van | -220 |
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