Bill Belichick is one of the three greatest coaches of all-time alongside Don Shula and George Halas, but he is not among the favorites to be named NFL Coach of the Year. Neither is Andy Reid although the Kansas City Chiefs have been to the AFC Championship Game for four straight seasons. That’s just how it goes for the top coaches in the league, as it typically takes a monumental season for the elite coaches to be named the NFL’s best once they are established. Instead, the coaches that usually win this award are first- or second-year coaches that turn around a team with a losing record.
2022 NFL Coach of the Year Odds
Sean McDermott +1001
Josh McDaniels +1402
Dan Campbell +1402
Brandon Staley +1402
Mike McDaniel +1602
Nathaniel Hackett +1602
Nick Sirianni +1803
Brian Daboll +1803
Doug Pederson +1803
All Other Coaches +2004 or more
Sean McDermott was not the initial favorite when the NFL Coach of the Year odds were released a few months ago, but he has leaped into the driver’s seat as the Buffalo Bills are the betting favorites to win Super Bowl LVII. McDermott has done an excellent job with the Bills over the last couple years, yet he has not been named NFL Coach of the Year, losing out to Kevin Stefanski in 2020 and Mike Vrabel in 2021. If the Bills win 12 or more games and are clearly one of the best teams in the NFL, we might see a push among the media to give McDermott the nod as something of an accumulation of good seasons.
Although there is some buzz surrounding Josh McDaniels when it comes to this award, it’s probably best to stay away from the new Las Vegas Raiders’ head coach. McDaniels could make this offense even better with the arrival of Davante Adams, but the Raiders are pegged to finish in last place in the toughest division in football. Denver and the Los Angeles Chargers will be much better than we saw in 2021, and McDaniels probably has little room for improvement after the Raiders went 10-7 last year.
It's wise to avoid Dan Campbell at this price too. A few people are jumping aboard the Detroit Lions bandwagon, and it’s clear that he has been able to get this team to respond to him. However, only one coach has been named NFL Coach of the Year while piloting a team to a sub-.500 record, and its going to be tough for Detroit to finish with a winning record given the dearth of talent on the roster. While it’s reasonable to be optimistic about this moribund franchise, the Lions are not ready to compete with Green Bay and Minnesota.
The best bet available at the current prices is Brandon Staley. The Los Angeles Chargers should be one of the best teams in the NFL if they can stay healthy, and Staley will receive a lot of support from the analytics community as he is the smartest coach when it comes to going for two. Justin Herbert is the favorite to be named MVP per the NFL futures odds, and both the offense and defense could be top five units with stars at key positions on both sides of the ball.
Denver should be much better with an actual franchise quarterback under center, so some are calling on Nathaniel Hackett to be a viable NFL Coach of the Year candidate.
Hackett was the offensive coordinator under Green Bay’s Matt LaFleur for each of the last three seasons, but it seems unlikely that he would get the credit needed to be named the top coach. Just as the presence of Aaron Rodgers has kept LaFleur from being named COY despite three straight 13-win seasons, Russell Wilson will receive a lot of the credit if Denver wins double digit games.
If you are going to take a flyer on a head coach to win this award, the Robert Saleh is worthy of a look. They New York Jets went 4-13 last season, but they were able to knock off Tennessee and Cincinnati, and they may be a legitimate sleeper as this offense has some real weapons for second-year quarterback Zach Wilson. Saleh is in a big market, so if the Jets can get to 10 wins, he will receive a serious push to be named NFL Coach of the Year.
2022 NFL Coach of the Year Pick: Brandon Staley
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