With an added week in between conference championship games and Super Bowl LIX we have more time to handicap picks and digest the massive prop bet menu coming our way. One of the most popular bets that isn’t directly related to the game’s outcome is Super Bowl MVP. Though I guess in a way it is related since only once in the previous 58 games was a member of the losing team voted MVP. Winner of the last two Super Bowl MVP awards and a three-time winner overall, Patrick Mahomes is the betting favorite to break a tie with Joe Montana for the second-most awards. And there’s a good reason why quarterbacks are always the favored players since they have the biggest impact on the game. Also, over the previous 58 Super Bowls a QB has won the award 33 times, which is nearly 57 percent of the time. There are a bunch of playmakers on the field, though, leaving several value options available.
NFL Betting Lines
Super Bowl LIX – Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Date and Time: Sunday, February 9, 2025, 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Opening Super Bowl LIX Odds: Kansas City -1.5, O/U 49.5
Eagles vs. Chiefs TV Coverage: FOX
Super Bowl LIX MVP Odds
Patrick Mahomes +105
Saquon Barkley +275
Jalen Hurts +360
Travis Kelce +1800
Xavier Worthy +2500
A.J. Brown +3000
Kareem Hunt +5000
Chris Jones +6000
DeVonta Smith +6000
Isaiah Pacheco +6000
Marquise Brown +6000
Jalen Carter +7500
Dallas Goedert +10000
DeAndre Hopkins +10000
George Karlaftis +10000
Harrison Butker +10000
Jake Elliott +10000
It’s common to see players on the offensive side of the football and mostly the starting quarterbacks listed with the shortest odds. The skill players accrue tangible stats and have a major impact on the outcome of the game. Like he was the last two years Mahomes is the favorite to win the award. He captured his second Super Bowl MVP in a win over the Eagles two years ago going 21 of 27 for 182 yards with three TD passes and an additional 44 yards rushing.
Last year Mahomes matched Montana for the second most MVPs ironically beating the San Francisco 49ers in overtime. He drove the Chiefs to the game-tying field goal at the end of regulation then threw the game-winning TD pass in overtime. Mahomes completed 34 of 46 for 333 yards and two scores. His numbers haven’t been great this postseason averaging just 211 passing yards in two games. He’s completed two-thirds of his attempts without an interception.
For someone other than a quarterback to win the award they will have to have a big game. The last non-QB winner was Cooper Kupp three years ago with two TD receptions, including the game-winner in the final minutes. Kupp was the eighth receiver to win the award giving that position the second most MVPs in Super Bowl history. And by the way you can wager on a position rather than an individual to win MVP.
Sneaking in between the starting QBs on the odds board is Saquon Barkley, who had a career season becoming the eighth player to reach the 2,000-yard mark in rushing yards. He’s also been dangerous in the postseason averaging more than 147 rushing yards and 6.7 yards per carry. Barkley scored three TD in the NFC Championship when the Eagles set a conference title game scoring record.
No tight end has ever won the award but if anyone can do it Travis Kelce can. Mahomes’ favorite target led the team with 97 receptions and 823 yards with three TDs during the regular season. In two playoff games Kelce has nine catches, 136 yards and one score. The Eagles have a good one as well in Dallas Goedert, who has 15 receptions in the postseason.
Both teams boast a strong defense giving some value to players on that side of the ball. Kansas City’s Chris Jones has the shortest odds of any defender with Philly’s Jalen Carter next in line. Denver’s Von Miller was the last defensive player to win the MVP in Super Bowl 50 when he collected 2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and six tackles. Typically defenders don’t put up enough tangible stats to make them worthy of the honor, but a couple of game-changing plays can sway voters.
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