When betting on the NFL Comeback Player of the Year, it’s important to look at quarterbacks. A quarterback has won this award in four straight seasons, and 10 of the last 14 winners of this award have been QBs.
Derrick Henry is looking to buck the mold though and become the first running back to be named Comeback Player of the Year since Garrison Hearst won the award in 2001.
2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds
Derrick Henry +554
Jameis Winston +604
Michael Thomas +910
Christian McCaffrey +910
Daniel Jones +1216
J.K. Dobbins +1216
Deshaun Watson +1216
Lamar Jackson +1216
All Other Players +1422 or More
Derrick Henry is the favorite to be named NFL Comeback Player of the Year. King Henry missed the last nine games of the regular season in 2021, but the two-time NFL rushing leader was well on his way to leading the league in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns for a third straight season. He finished the year with 937 yards and 10 touchdowns, and Tennessee is still going to lean heavily on him to carry the workload. Henry has the third lowest odds to be named NFL Offensive Player of the Year, and he can potentially win both awards if he stays healthy.
It's been quite a ride for Jameis Winston over the last few years. Winston put together one of the craziest seasons in NFL history in 2019, throwing for 5,109 yards with 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. He was a backup to Drew Brees in 2020, but he started the season under center for the New Orleans Saints last year and led the team to a 5-2 record before he suffered a season-ending injury. Winston was incredibly fortunate though, as he threw for 14 touchdowns and three interceptions despite averaging less than 170 YPG through the air. He has a plethora of weapons with the addition of Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry, but he has yet to show any real improvement since coming into the league.
Teammate Michael Thomas is one of the frontrunners to be named NFL Comeback Player of the Year too. Thomas led the NFL in receptions in 2018 and 2019 and receiving yards in 2019. He missed most of the 2020 season due to injury though, and he proceeded to not play a down in 2021 either after waiting too late before having surgery on his ankle. It would be great to see Thomas bounce back, but he might not have his explosiveness as he is still rehabbing the injury as of early June.
There will be a lot of attention paid to Christian McCaffrey at just under 10-1 on this list. McCaffrey had record setting seasons in 2018 and 2019, finishing with over 1,000 rushing yards and 100 receptions in both years. Unfortunately, he has only been able to play in 10 games the last two seasons as he has been plagued by different injuries. Run CMC will be the focal point of Carolina’s offense, but Sam Darnold is not the answer under center.
Avoid betting on either Daniel Jones or Deshaun Watson to win this award. Jones played in all but six games last season, and he has missed multiple games in all three of his NFL seasons to date. He has a 12-25 record and has failed to improve after a promising rookie campaign with 21 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions in 25 games over the last two seasons.
Meanwhile, there is already a ceiling in place for Watson. Due to his off the field transgressions, many voters will abstain from voting for Cleveland’s new quarterback. Additionally, he could still be suspended by Roger Goodell for violating personal conduct rules.
The best bet on the board is Lamar Jackson at over 12-1 to win Comeback Player of the Year. Jackson missed five games due to injury last season, so this is a little bit of a cheap pick as he played most of the year, but the narrative is that his absence cost Baltimore a playoff berth. Baltimore is 37-12 in games that Jackson has started over the last four years, and this offense is built for him to thrive.
2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Pick: Lamar Jackson
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