Although running backs have won the vast majority of NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year accolades, it’s a new age in the league. Quarterbacks are now the stars of the show, and that has led to signal callers winning OROY more often than any other position group over the last dozen years. We have seen six quarterbacks, four running backs, and two wide receivers win this award over the last 12 seasons, so a QB is the favorite in 2022 although just one signal caller was taken in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft.
2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
Kenny Pickett +600
Chris Olave +800
Treylon Burks +900
Breece Hall +900
Skyy Moore +900
Drake London +1000
Christian Watson +1200
Garrett Wilson +1200
Kenneth Walker III +1200
All Other Players +1600 or More
The Pittsburgh Steelers passed on hometown hero Dan Marino in the 1983 NFL Draft, and it haunted the franchise for almost two decades. Pittsburgh was under local pressure to not allow another local product to slip through its fingers, so the Steelers took Kenny Pickett late in the first round, and he is the betting favorite to be named NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Pickett will be competing with Mitch Trubisky for the starting job in the Steel City, but there are serious concerns about how well he will fare on a team without much talent on that side of the ball. He was a marginal quarterback through his first four seasons at Pitt and only thrived in his last year.
It’s certainly interesting to see Chris Olave listed as the second favorite ahead of every other receiver and running back. Olave was great during his time at Ohio State, but he was the third receiver selected in the NFL Draft, and he isn’t going to be in a great spot. Jameis Winston is coming off a season-ending injury, and Winston is not likely to air it out in this offense. He averaged just 167 YPG through the air in 2021, and a lot of balls are going to be thrown to Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, and Jarvis Landry.
Tennessee’s Treylon Burks has the potential to be the No. 1 receiver for the Titans. Burks was the star of Arkansas’ offense last year, and Tennessee is counting on him to replace A.J. Brown. The Titans aren’t going to throw the ball a ton with Derrick Henry carrying the load, but Ryan Tannehill can find Burks on a lot of deep balls off play action.
The newest Kansas City receiver de jour is Skyy Moore. Kansas City selected Moore with the 54th pick in the NFL Draft, but he was the 13th receiver off the board in one of the deepest receiver classes of all-time. It’s easy to explain the logic behind backing Moore to be OROY as Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league, and Tyreek Hill was traded away in the offseason. However, the only player that is sure to receive a lot of targets in this offense is Travis Kelce, as the Chiefs also brought in JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Breece Hall was the first running back selected, and he will have ample opportunity to prove himself with the New York Jets. Hall will get the bulk of the carries in the backfield, so there is a good chance he will finish with over 1,000 yards. That makes him a solid pick to be named OROY.
There is a lot of buzz surrounding James Cook at 16-1 to win OROY. Cook is the younger brother of Dalvin Cook, and he has fresh legs after splitting carries during his time at Georgia. While he is currently penciled in as the back-up to Devin Singletary, there is a good chance that Cook overtakes Singletary as the starter in training camp. Singletary has posted underwhelming numbers in a great offense, so Cook could have gaudy stats.
A lottery ticket that could pay off at 40-1 is tight end Trey McBride. A tight end has never been named OROY, but they are playing bigger roles in the offense, and McBride could easily end the year with over 1,000 yards in Arizona’s offense. DeAndre Hopkins will miss the first six games of the season due to suspension, and Zach Ertz is on the tail end of his career, so McBride could make history.
2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Pick: James Cook
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