All of the favorites to be named NFL MVP are quarterbacks. That’s because each of the last nine winners of this award have been signal callers, and voters generally agree on a QB to be the MVP while choosing a running back or receiver to be Offensive Player of the Year. There isn’t a non-quarterback with odds below 25-1 to be named MVP, as it will take a record-breaking season coupled with down years from many quarterbacks for anyone else to be named MVP.
2022 NFL MVP Odds
Josh Allen +702
Patrick Mahomes +702
Aaron Rodgers +1004
Tom Brady +1004
Russell Wilson +1206
Joe Burrow +1206
Justin Herbert +1206
Lamar Jackson +1612
Dak Prescott +1612
Kyler Murray +1612
Matthew Stafford +1612
All Other Players +2018 or More
The co-favorites to be named NFL MVP are Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. These two signal callers squared off in the most exciting playoff game in several years last season, and their teams are the favorites to win Super Bowl LVII.
Allen has proved the naysayers wrong after a shaky first two seasons in the NFL. He had a sensational campaign in 2020, and Allen was one of the NFL’s top quarterbacks once again in 2021. That has turned Buffalo into an elite team, and he has three excellent targets in Stefon Diggs, playoff star Gabriel Davis, and tight end Dawson Knox. Buffalo’s defense should be better too with the addition of Von Miller.
Mahomes was named the 2018 NFL MVP after throwing for over 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns. He has been the best quarterback in the NFL over the last four seasons, and the Kansas City Chiefs will still be Super Bowl contenders even if the AFC West is much tougher and they no longer have Tyreek Hill. Mahomes has new weapons like Marquez Valdes-Scantling, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Skyy Moore to target in the passing game, and they still have tight end Travis Kelce too.
Aaron Rodgers has been named the NFL MVP in back-to-back seasons. He has won this award four times in the last 11 years, so it’s extremely unlikely that he is named the MVP again. Brett Favre is the only other player that has been named league MVP in three straight seasons, but he had to split the mantle with Barry Sanders in his third year. Green Bay has won 13 games in three consecutive years, yet the Packers lost Davante Adams, so this team is likely to take a step back in 2022.
It looked like there would be a passing of the guard in the NFL this offseason. Tom Brady retired shortly after Tampa Bay was eliminated from the playoffs, but his stepping away from football proved to be short lived. Brady announced that he would return after just 40 days, and that made the Buccaneers a Super Bowl contender once more. The GOAT has been only named MVP three times, but he led the NFL in passing yards last year and stands a decent chance of winning the honor for a fourth time.
Joe Burrow might be the worst bet on the board of all the favorites. Burrow was magical for the Cincinnati Bengals in the playoffs last year, but this team finished with the worst record of any division winner. It’s hard to imagine he can stay healthy for a whole season considering he was sacked 51 times last year, and the offensive line is still a mess. There’s a good chance that the Bengals don’t even return to the postseason.
The best bets to be named NFL MVP are Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson. Herbert and Jackson are two of the most talented young quarterbacks in the game, and their teams can both win 12 or more games and claim a division title.
Herbert has been fantastic in each of his two NFL seasons, and he has a lot of talent surrounding him. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are a solid tandem of wide outs, and Austin Ekeler is a do-it-all running back. This defense has the potential to be elite too, putting Herbert in excellent position.
As for Jackson, the 2019 NFL MVP is always a threat to win another award as long as he has his mobility. He is the greatest running quarterback in the history of the NFL, and he might be asked to run the ball even more after Baltimore traded away Marquise Brown.
2022 NFL MVP Pick: Justin Herbert
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