Incredibly, every team has won the AFC West 15 times. That speaks to the long-term egalitarianism we have seen in this division, but that’s also just a snapshot in time. When you look closer, this is a division that has been defined by mini dynasties going on long runs of dominance against their division rivals. For instance, the San Diego Chargers won the AFC West five times between 2004 and 2009, the Denver Broncos won the division five straight times from 2011 to 2015, and the Kansas City Chiefs have now won the division for seven straight seasons. Kansas City is the odds-on favorite to win the AFC West due to this recent run, and the Chiefs are coming off their third Super Bowl appearance in the last four years.
NFL Betting Odds
2023 AFC West Odds
Kansas City Chiefs -196
Los Angeles Chargers +308
Denver Broncos +676
Las Vegas Raiders +1250
Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL. Mahomes silenced any remaining doubters by leading the Kansas City Chiefs to their second Super Bowl win in four years, and he did it without Tyreek Hill. Kansas City is the team to beat once again as Mahomes should be even more comfortable with receivers like Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling back for another season. Travis Kelce remains the best receiving tight end in the game, and the Chiefs struck gold by finding Rutgers running back Isiah Pacheco with one of the final picks of the 2022 NFL Draft.
Given the quality of the offense, the defense doesn’t need to do much for Kansas City to win games. The Chiefs do have a solid pass rush with Chris Jones leading the way up front, and Willie Gay is a solid middle linebacker. The team is hoping that 2022 first-round pick Trent McDuffie can develop into a solid starter, and this team will be even more dangerous if that comes to be.
The only real threat to Kansas City in the AFC West is the Los Angeles Chargers. Justin Herbert isn’t as elite as Mahomes, but he is in that next tier with signal callers like Joe Burrow and Josh Allen. Austin Ekeler is an excellent dual-threat running back, and Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are a solid receiving tandem.
Health has been a major issue for the Chargers over the last few years, especially on defense. They have suffered long-term injuries to stars like Derwin James, J.C. Jackson, and Joey Bosa, and they could be a top five unit on this side of the ball if they can avoid the injury bug.
The biggest question mark in the AFC is Denver. There was a lot of hype surrounding the Broncos ahead of last season, but Russell Wilson really struggled under center. This team had one of the best defenses in the NFL, but a bad offense led to the Broncos missing out on the postseason. The hope is that new head coach Sean Payton can revitalize Wilson and this offense, as the Broncos have some very nice pieces on this side of the ball.
Denver has an elite defense even with the loss of Bradley Chubb. There’s little doubt that Pat Surtain II is already a top five cornerback, and the front office was able to bring in Frank Clark in free agency. Clark is a major disruptive force that can get after the quarterback.
It’s time for the Las Vegas Raiders to push the reset button. Although the Raiders have some talented players on offense like Davante Adams, Hunter Renfroe, and Josh Jacobs, the quarterback position is a huge question mark. They signed Jimmy Garoppolo earlier this year, but Garoppolo has yet to pass a physical and might never take a snap for the Raiders. If he doesn’t play, Brian Hoyer, Aidan O’Connell, and Chase Garbers are the quarterbacks on the roster, and there is always a chance that Tom Brady would come down from the press box.
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