Every team in the NFC South has claimed at least one division title since 2015 and two division titles since 2012. That makes this one of the more even divisions in the NFL, so don’t be surprised if we see a lot of parity in the NFC South this season.
All four of these teams have major question marks, and there is a decent chance that the team wins this division finishes with a sub-.500 record.
NFL Betting Odds
2023 NFC South Odds
New Orleans Saints +131
Atlanta Falcons +229
Carolina Panthers +321
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +638
It’s been a long time since the New Orleans Saints have been truly bad. They haven’t won fewer than seven games since 2005, so they should be competitive in the NFC South unless one of the other three teams is very surprising. New Orleans is the favorite as this is the team with the fewest question marks and the most certainty at the quarterback position.
The Saints signed Derek Carr to a four-year deal worth up to $150 million this offseason. Carr isn’t one of the best ten quarterbacks in the league, but he is an average to above average option that is 63-79 in his career. He led the Raiders to 10-win seasons in 2016 and 2021, yet Carr was never a true difference maker. This might be the most talented offense he has been a part of though as the Saints have Michael Thomas (assuming he is healthy) and 2022 first-round pick Chris Olave along with star dual-threat running back Alvin Kamara.
Defense has carried the Saints through the last three seasons. New Orleans has finished in the top seven in total defense for each of the last three years, and the secondary is very good with Marshon Lattimore and Tyrann Mathieu in the back. Cameron Jordan can get to the quarterback, but the linebackers are a concern aside from veteran Demario Davis.
Atlanta has constructed a fantasy football team over the last three drafts. The Falcons drafted tight end Kyle Pitts fourth overall in 2021, wide receiver Drake London eighth overall in 2022, and running back Bijan Robinson eighth overall in 2023. All three players are talented, but Atlanta doesn’t have an offensive line and has one of the worst quarterback situations in the NFL. Desmond Ridder wasn’t very impressive in his four starts as a rookie in 2022, and Taylor Heinicke isn’t a great option behind him.
The defense could be even worse though. Atlanta has finished in the bottom quarter of the league in total defense for four of the last five seasons. The Falcons brought in a ton of new faces like Jessie Bates III, Jeff Okudah, Calais Campbell, Kaden Elliss, Eddie Goldman, and Bud Dupree. All those players are currently projected to start, so it will be interesting to see how they come together as a unit.
My favorite pick to win the NFC South is Carolina at +321. The Panthers are starting a rookie quarterback in Bryce Young, but he is already better than Desmond Ridder and whoever the Tampa Bay Buccaneers start under center. Carolina brought in a lot of help for the No. 1 overall pick too as the Panthers signed Miles Sanders, Adam Thielen, and Hayden Hurst.
Frank Reich should be the best coach in the division. Additionally, there is a ton of talent remaining from a defense that ranked No. 2 overall just two years ago. Derrick Brown and Brian Burns are very talented players up front, and the secondary is very good.
Flags fly forever. That’s what Tampa Bay fans will be telling themselves this year as the Buccaneers are in the middle of a long rebuild after Tom Brady retired once again. The Buccaneers will now be starting either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask, and neither player has looked sharp in preseason. That’s unfortunate since Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are still a very good receiving tandem, and this is a good offensive line.
The Bucs should have an above average defense given the talent on this side of the ball. However, they could be sellers before the trade deadline too given the amount of veterans they have that could be difference makers for playoff teams.
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