A coach in the old Arena Football League once said after his team signed a major star player, “I just became a better coach today.” That pretty much sums it up when talking about the upcoming 2023 NFL season. Sure, a good coach can make a difference, but in the end the results are controlled by the players. And with better players a coach has a better chance of winning a postseason award. The odds on the board fluctuate wildly with Sean Payton the early favorite as the only coach with shorter than 10/1 odds. And it isn’t a huge surprise to see the former Saints’ boss topping the chart.
2023 NFL Futures Odds
Out of the ring last year, Payton takes over a Denver Broncos squad that hasn’t had a winning season since 2016 and hasn’t been to the playoffs since winning Super Bowl 50 following the 2015 campaign. During his 15 years with the Saints Payton recorded 10 winning season, appeared in the postseason nine times and won Super Bowl XLIV. Last year’s winner Brian Daboll is near the bottom of the list not because he suddenly became a bad coach rather because we haven’t seen a repeat winner since Joe Gibbs in the early 1980s.
Also, coaches with a period of sustained success typically don’t win the award unless something special happens. And since I don’t see Kansas City, Buffalo or Philadelphia going undefeated, Andy Reid, Sean McDermott and Nick Sirianni are further down the list. The second tier of favorites has solid contenders with seven men holding shorter than 20/1 odds.
2023 NFL Coach of the Year Odds
Sean Payton +900
Matt Eberflus +1100
Matt LaFleur +1100
Dennis Allen +1200
Mike McDaniel +1400
Dan Campbell +1600
Kyle Shanahan +1600
Arthur Smith +1600
Robert Saleh +2200
DeMeco Ryans +2200
Frank Reich +2200
Mike Tomlin +2200
Zac Taylor +2500
Ron Rivera +2500
Shane Steichen +2500
Doug Pederson +2500
Kevin OConnell +2800
Andy Reid +3300
John Harbaugh +3300
Bill Belichick +3300
Mike Vrabel +3300
Sean McVay +3300
Brandon Staley +4000
Nick Sirianni +4000
Pete Carroll +4000
Jonathan Gannon +4000
Kevin Stefanski +4000
Josh McDaniels +4000
Brian Daboll +5000
Mike McCarthy +5000
Sean McDermott +5000
Todd Bowles +7500
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Payton is in a good spot to win the award by just having a winning season, which is something he did plenty during his time with New Orleans. He’s already put his stamp on the Broncos and his ability to make Drew Brees a Hall of Famer should do wonders for Russell Wilson. The only problem is that the AFC West is a meat grinder and we don’t know if Wilson had a bad season in 2022 or if the problems run much deeper.
Looking at the trajectory of teams gives us plenty of insight as to who might be on track to win the award. One coach that stands out to me is Detroit’s Dan Campbell. After starting last season with one win in their first seven games, the Lions went on a tear with eight victories in their last 10 games remaining in the playoff picture to the final weekend of the season. The club ended with a winning record for the first time since 2017. Quality free agent signings and shrewd draft picks have put the Lions in a good spot in the suddenly wide open NFC North.
Two other coaches with longer odds are also in a seemingly good spot. A championship defense was hindered by a bumbling offense last season and the New York Jets paid the price losing their final six games to finish 7-10. The club jumped at the chance to acquire Aaron Rodgers to address the need at quarterback and I’m sure Robert Saleh uttered the same words that AFL coach I mentioned in the opener said. The Jets were 6-1 last year when scoring 20 points or more in a game, but they failed to score more than 17 points in their final five contests.
After the Urban Meyer debacle the Jacksonville Jaguars needed a steady, seasoned coach and turned to former Super Bowl winner Doug Pederson. The Jags went from having the first overall draft pick to winning a division title with a 9-8 record in Pederson’s first year.
Sitting in the longshot category are Cleveland’s Kevin Stefanski and Dallas’ Mike McCarthy, though their clubs look to be in better shape than some of the others. A full season of Deshaun Watson should help the Browns in their never-ending quest for relevance. And the Cowboys boast a wealth of talent of defense leaving Dak Prescott to only manage a game and not be the hero. That complex messed with his head and the Cowboys never reached the heights they could.
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