Despite matching the prior year's win total under new head coach Jonathan Gannon, the Arizona Cardinals showed consistent effort, laying a foundation for future success under new GM Monti Ossenfort. This was a refreshing change from the condition left by the previous coaching staff and general manager after being excommunicated from the desert. Although their 4-13 W/L record, including a 0-6 showing against NFC West opponents, was unimpressive, their 9-7-1 performance against the closing NFL odds indicated a team performing better than its record suggested. The offseason saw the front office adding more weapons through the NFL Draft, trades, and free agency. But will these moves be enough to compete with the 49ers, Rams, and Seahawks for division supremacy or return to the playoffs off a two-year absence? Linemakers seem optimistic, setting the team’s season total odds two games higher than last season (4.5). While much would need to go right for this to happen, and it might be premature to expect a full turnaround this season, the Cardinals' resilience last year has not been forgotten considering how much the team made me sweat to cash that under ticket. Let's take a deep dive into the Cardinals' offseason to make an informed decision on how to approach their win total for the 2024-25 NFL betting season.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
Arizona Cardinals 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Cardinals Over 6.5 Wins -174
Cardinals Under 6.5 Wins +150
A Case for the Over: With Kyler Murray under center, the Cardinals' offense significantly improved compared to the inconsistent performances Gannon relied upon earlier in the year. While there was a noticeable increase in overall production, it didn’t amount to wins with the team going 3-5 SU and 5-3 ATS. Take into consideration however the caliber of opposition faced during that stretch with five of the eight teams ultimately going on to punch playoff tickets. Now, with Murray having had a full offseason with the coaching staff and new players, I expect the offense to be more cohesive and efficient, aiming to improve upon last season’s rankings both overall (No. 19) and in scoring (No. 24). The unit excelled in the running game (No. 4), and the offensive line was strengthened with the veteran additions of Jonah Williams and Evan Brown, complementing last year’s first-round pick Paris Johnson Jr. These improvements should bolster a rushing attack led by James Conner, who surpassed 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career. The passing attack also added top wide receiver prospect Marvin Harrison Jr., who has already received rave reviews out of OTAs and rookie camp. Without a doubt, the offense appears to be the overall strength of the roster. If the unit can avoid significant injuries, it will put points on the board and be competitive in games where betting lines suggest otherwise.
A Case for the Under: Despite the introduction of many new faces into the defensive huddle for the 2024-25 football betting season, it will be challenging for the mix of young talent and veterans to make a significant impact. While the Cardinals only allowed 212.5 passing yards per game (No. 13) last season, it largely had to do with the fact that the opposition shunned away from passing the ball considering how easy it was to rip off chunk yards on the ground. No team in the NFL served up more rushing yards than that of the 2023-24 Arizona Cardinals with the unit getting ripped for 143+ yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry (No. 28). The defense was also one of only eight teams to allow an average of one rushing touchdown per game. The defensive line was overhauled in the offseason, featuring rookie DE Darius Robinson and veterans Bilal Nichols and Justin Jones. The secondary also saw changes with rookie Max Melton and veteran Sean Murphy-Bunting expected to hold down each cornerback position. While Gannon, known for his defensive expertise, is likely to foster improvement in year two of his regime, it remains uncertain if the uptick in production will be sufficient to help Arizona surpass its win total odds after two consecutive seasons of falling short.
2024-25 Arizona Cardinals Schedule
The Cardinals ran up against one of the toughest schedules in the league last season. This year, Sharp Football Analysis rates their schedule strength as average, on par with their divisional opponents. Arizona will play against seven teams favored to make the playoffs, including two matchups each with the 49ers and Rams, although these games are scheduled for the final two weeks when playoff positions may already be secured. Currently, oddsmakers favor the Cardinals to win only five of their 17 games, but they’re also installed underdogs of three points or fewer in five matchups, providing ten potential wins. The unpredictable nature of injuries could influence outcomes for both Arizona and its opponents throughout the NFL betting season. Winning six of those closely contested games and pulling off an upset or two could see the Cardinals easily surpass their win total. While laying the heavy chalk isn’t ideal, I’m a believer in what the Cardinals have done to reshape its fortunes enough to do so and expect them to take another significant step forward in the rebuild of the franchise.
NFL Win Total Prediction: Arizona Cardinals Over 6.5 Wins
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