The Atlanta Falcons entered last year’s campaign installed favorites at the online sportsbook to qualify for the playoffs by way of winning the NFC South but ended up churning out a disappointing 7-10 record, covering just five games against the closing NFL odds along the way. This led to upper management putting a full stop on the Arthur Smith experiment after three seasons, appointing Raheem Morris as the new head coach. With a better-than-average roster and key positions filled, expectations remain high. The Falcons, once seen as a quarterback away from success, addressed this by signing Kirk Cousins to a substantial contract and drafting Michael Penix Jr. in the first round, despite some believing the defense needed more attention. This draft decision raised eyebrows as the Falcons have repeatedly chosen offensive players with their top picks in recent years. The pressure is now on, with no excuses left, and Morris, a defensive-oriented coach, leading the team. The outcome of the upcoming season hinges on whether these offensive moves will pay off or if the team's pass rush will remain inadequate. How should NFL bettors approach the Falcons' season win total odds? Let's dig into the front office's offseason moves to make an informed decision.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
Atlanta Falcons 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Falcons Over 9.5 Wins -145
Falcons Under 9.5 Wins +125
A Case for the Over: The trio of RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London, and TE Kyle Pitts represents a threesome that many NFL franchises would highly covet. Last year’s top pick, Robinson, nearly secured 1,500 scrimmage yards and almost hit the 1,000-yard rushing mark, despite nearly sharing carries with Tyler Allgeier, who only managed 683 yards on 186 carries. London and Pitts combined for just 1,572 yards on 122 receptions, scoring only five touchdowns between them. For comparison, D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet of the similarly ranked Chicago Bears passing offense combined for over 2,000 receiving yards, 169 receptions, and 14 touchdowns. This highlights how underutilized the Falcons' two primary pass-catching options were under the previous regime. While poor quarterback play was a factor, the targets tell the story: London had only 110 targets, compared to Moore’s 136 as Chicago’s WR1. The neglectful usage should end with Kirk Cousins now in the mix. Before his injury last season, Cousins consistently involved his key receivers, leading to offensive success and points hitting the board. With expected improvements in efficiency, Atlanta’s offense should help tip the scales in close games, where they went 4-6 straight up and 3-7 against the closing NFL odds last season.
A Case for the Under: I’m baffled by GM Terry Fontenot's decision to draft Michael Penix Jr. in the first round when the consensus was that the longtime collegiate quarterback would be available later. Given the defense's dire need after losing its two best pass rushers in the offseason and managing only 42 sacks with Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree in the trenches, I expected a defensive playmaker to be the top priority. The team could have traded back, gained additional draft capital, and still picked the best defensive player, especially since no defensive player was taken until the No. 15 pick. It’s perplexing. Perhaps the new defensive-minded head coach will extract more from the roster than Arthur Smith and his staff did, but this decision feels like a significant misuse of a top-10 pick, impacting the team now and in the future. To compound matters, no substantial additions were made via free agency or trade to support a defense that only forced 16 takeaways (No. 29) and badly needed reinforcement along the line and in the secondary. Although the schedule strength is one of the leagues easiest, NFL bettors have already witnessed what this unit can do with arguably better personnel last season.
2024-25 Atlanta Falcons Schedule
Despite the NFC South's lackluster performance last season, with no team achieving double-digit wins, the Falcons had no excuse for not winning the underachieving division. This year, Atlanta could still win the division and yet fail to exceed its season win total at the online sportsbook due to their rivals not doing anything ground breaking to improve their cause in the offseason. Looking at the betting odds for Atlanta's 17-game schedule, NFL bettors will see that the Falcons are only listed as underdogs in four games, with two of those being narrow 1-point spreads against the Cowboys and @Saints in weeks nine and ten. After facing one of the easiest schedules last season, the Falcons now have what Sharp Football Analysis deems the easiest schedule of all 32 teams. With nine home games and only three opponents currently favored to make the playoffs, everything seems set for the Falcons to break their six-season playoff drought. However, I remain skeptical. Atlanta hasn't won more than seven games in its last six seasons, so I'll stick with the trend and wait for the team to exceed expectations before buying in.
NFL Win Total Prediction: Atlanta Falcons Under 9.5 Wins
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