The Buffalo Bills have produced double-digit win campaigns for the past three NFL campaigns since narrowly missing a Super Bowl berth in 2021. Unfortunately for their championship-hungry fan base, known as the Bills Mafia, the team has been unable to progress beyond the division round of the playoffs. In response, upper management made significant changes this offseason, retooling and restocking the roster through the NFL Draft, trades, and free agency. Oddsmakers at the online sportsbook are predicting another successful season for the folks in Orchard Park, with Buffalo favored to win the AFC East for the fifth consecutive time and secure a playoff spot for the sixth straight year. But should NFL bettors take the over or under on their current win total? Let’s examine the work GM Brandon Beane did in the offseason to make an informed futures bet on the Bills’ win total.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
Buffalo Bills 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Bills Over 10.5 Wins +118
Bills Under 10.5 Wins -138
A Case for the Over: With a healthy Josh Allen under center, the Bills will always be a nemesis to their division rivals and legitimate Super Bowl contender. Allen, coming off a season in which he surpassed 4,000 passing yards a fourth consecutive time and threw 29 touchdown passes, leads an offense that appears set to be a top-10 unit once again. Last year, Buffalo ranked fourth overall in total offense (374.5 YPG) and sixth in scoring (26.5 PPG). Even with the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, the Bills' offense remains potent. Khalil Shakir is expected to step in as the full-time slot receiver, while Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox return off combining for 859 yards and 4 TDs on 95 receptions. The offense has been bolstered by the addition of Commanders WR Curtis Samuel and rookie Keon Coleman, who impressed with 658 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns in his junior year at Florida State. Buffalo has fielded a top-10 red zone scoring offense for the past three seasons, largely due to Allen’s ability to hit paydirt with his legs. With Coleman now in the mix, Allen has another big target at his disposal, potentially elevating the Bills to the league's best red zone attack, similar to the output put forth in 2021.
A Case for the Under: A major changing of the guard occurred this offseason as upper management recognized that the current roster wasn’t sufficient to push the franchise over the hump. Along with the offensive changes, the defense underwent a significant overhaul, with the front office parting ways with Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer, and Leonard Floyd. To strengthen the secondary, they re-signed Taylor Rapp and brought in Mike Edwards and Cole Bishop via free agency and the draft. However, this means losing a lot of veteran leadership from a unit frequently plagued by injuries. Despite focusing on defensive depth in the offseason, Sean McDermott will once again have to hope that injuries don’t prevent the defense from reaching its full potential—a challenge they haven’t fully overcome in quite some time.
2024-25 Buffalo Bills Schedule
Among the contenders for the AFC East crown, the Bills face the toughest schedule strength. According to Sharp Football Analysis, Buffalo has the league’s tenth toughest schedule, with nine of their 17 games played away from Highmark Stadium. They also face two particularly challenging stretches: from Weeks 4-6, they go on the road to face the Ravens, Texans, and division rival Jets. Then, from Weeks 11-15, they play the Chiefs and 49ers, with the Week 12 bye sandwiched in between, and then have road games against the Rams and Lions. They finish with two games against the Patriots and their final matchup of the year against Aaron Rodgers and the Jets.
Competing against the ultra-competitive AFC East, AFC South, NFC West, and aforementioned teams like the Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, and Detroit Lions, the Bills will run up against a daunting schedule. Overall, half of Buffalo’s 14 opponents qualified for the playoffs last year, with eight expected to make the playoffs this season. Last year's team barely surpassed their 10.5-game win total, marking the second consecutive season they hit the over. Since Sean McDermott took over in 2017, the Bills have achieved that feat in all but one season, but many obstacles could prevent them from continuing this trend. I expect the roster turnover, an improved division, a tough schedule, and the injury bug persistently wreaking havoc in the locker room to hinder their success. While the talent to contend for the Lombardi Trophy is undoubtedly there, I believe the main issue roams the sideline. Despite his impressive regular-season resume, McDermott has struggled to win when it matters most. I anticipate a dose of negative regression in the regular season this time around, with pressure mounting upper management, either in-season or next year, to make a significant change in hopes of keeping their Super Bowl window open with Josh Allen under center.
NFL Win Total Prediction: Buffalo Bills Under 10.5 Wins
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