The Windy City is buzzing with excitement as the 2024-25 NFL betting season approaches, with the Chicago Bears aiming to transform their first round draft picks and offseason additions into a success story reminiscent of what C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans procured a season ago. Without a single deep playoff run over the last 13 seasons, the Bears' outlook is promising after a productive offseason orchestrated by GM Ryan Poles and his staff. With two first-round draft picks and several veteran additions, the Bears have become serious contenders for the NFC North division title, garnering attention from HBO's "Hard Knocks." Although they finished third or worse in four of the last five seasons, oddsmakers and NFL bettors have high expectations for the Bears' 105th season. With the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Bears selected USC QB and Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams, and later added Washington WR Rome Odunze, creating a potent passing attack. Whether this will lead to a division title and Super Bowl run remains to be seen, but upper management has positioned the team for potential long-term success, making NFL bettors optimistic about Chicago in this new era. So, how should we approach the Bears' win total this season? Let's examine the details to make an informed decision on which way to go.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
Chicago Bears 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Bears Over 8.5 Wins -152
Bears Under 8.5 Wins +132
A Case for the Over: With Justin Fields at the helm, the Bears boasted one of the league's best rushing attacks, averaging over 141 yards per game (No. 2) and 4.5 yards per attempt (No. 5). Unfortunately, this was the lone strength of the offense, as the passing game struggled. Despite D.J. Moore achieving career-highs in yardage (1,364) and touchdown receptions (8) in his first season with Chicago, the team only averaged just over 182 passing yards per game (No. 27) and 6.7 yards per attempt (No. 24). Fields was unable to push the ball downfield with precision. This is unlikely to be the case for Caleb Williams, who enters his rookie campaign with arguably the best supporting cast a No. 1 pick has ever had. With Keenan Allen adding a veteran presence with excellent hands and route-running skills, Chicago’s wide receiver corps ranks among the best in the division, if not the NFL. Bolstering the new-look aerial attack is a solid backfield that added RB D’Andre Swift, who surpassed the 1,000-yard rushing mark for the first time in his career with Philadelphia. With an improved offensive line, Chicago could potentially showcase the best offense in franchise history, provided the highly touted rookies adapt quickly to the NFL's speed.
A Case for the Under: Betting on the over means betting against a trend that has seen Chicago fail to meet expectations in each of the past five seasons. The last time the Bears exceeded their season win total odds was in 2018, when they won 12 games against a 7.5-game win total, earning Matt Nagy the AP Coach of the Year Award. This was the only time in the last 11 years that Chicago hit the over for futures odds bettors. The Bears' current 8.5-game win total is the second-highest during that period, and the over is heavily juiced at -152. The NFC North is expected to be highly competitive, with divisional wins likely hard to come by. Chicago hasn't produced a winning record in the division since the 2019-20 season and has only six wins in 24 divisional games over the last four years. With Detroit and Green Bay the only two teams currently favored to make the playoffs at the online sportsbook, wins could be tough to log at the back half of the schedule where the Packers and Lions each show up making it tough to log the wins needed to surpass this impost.
2024-25 Chicago Bears Schedule
The Bears are currently favored to win nine of their 17 games when going by the current NFL odds for the entire season. That’s a significant improvement from last year when they only went off the board favored to win four times. This shift highlights the impact of acquiring a Heisman Trophy winner and additional reinforcements. Out of their 14 overall opponents, only five are favored to make the postseason according to current futures odds. However, the latter part of the schedule is challenging, with games locked in against the 49ers, Packers and Lions. Despite this, the overall schedule strength is rated as the third-easiest in the league by Sharp Football Analysis, based on opposing win totals. This suggests that the Bears need to capitalize on the easier portion of their schedule early on. Although laying this type of chalk on a win total is a tough sell, I recommend betting against the under streak, with the belief a new era of Chicago Bears football starts hits the ground running right out of the chute.
NFL Win Total Prediction: Chicago Bears Over 8.5 Wins
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