Despite harboring a next man up mentality, a season-ending injury to Joe Burrow ultimately prevented the Cincinnati Bengals from exceeding their season win total or securing a playoff berth for the third straight season. Consequently, the Bengals were the only team in the AFC North that failed to make the postseason, finishing with a 9-8 SU record and the worst showing against the spread in the division (7-8-2 ATS). Burrow is reportedly fully recovered from the wrist and calf injuries that hindered his 2023-24 campaign, sparking optimism among prop bettors and fantasy footballers for the Bengals' offense in the upcoming NFL betting season. As a result, online sportsbooks view the Bengals as strong contenders to win the AFC North for the third time in four years and serious threats to bring the Lombardi Trophy to Cincinnati for the first time in franchise history. Does all the offseason hype mean Cincy will go over or under its season win total? Let's break it down to make an informed futures bet on the Bengals' win total.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
Cincinnati Bengals 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Bengals Over 10.5 Wins -133
Bengals Under 10.5 Wins +113
A Case for the Over: Even with Burrow only lining up under center for ten games, the Bengals managed to field the league’s No. 15 ranked passing attack, thanks in part to Jake Browning's performance that was bolstered by a strong wide receiver corps. Although Tyler Boyd will now suit up for the Titans on Sundays, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins remain Cincinnati’s top receiving threats. Chase is potentially aiming for the biggest contract a wide receiver has ever received, while Higgins is showcasing his skills for a significant payday from another team next season. This pass catching duo is likely to be among the most motivated receivers in the league. Coupled with a retooled offensive line, improved through trades and the draft, the Bengals are well-positioned to have one of the more potent offensive attacks of all 32 NFL teams throughout the duration of the 2024-25 NFL betting season.
A Case for the Under: While the defense continued to excel at taking the ball away, accumulating 26 overall takeaways (No. 12) through 17 played games, this was one of the few bright spots for Lou Anarumo’s unit last season. A year after allowing just over 335 yards (No. 16) and 20 points per game (No. 5) while ranking seventh against the run (106.6 YPG), the defense regressed significantly, giving up over 248 yards through the air (No. 28) and 126 yards on the ground (No. 26) per game. Veterans Sheldon Rankins, Vonn Bell, and Geno Stone were brought in during the offseason to bolster the defensive front and secondary, but a noticeable turnaround will likely depend on contributions from rookies and second-year players. If these improvements fall short, Trey Hendrickson will once again be tasked with carrying the defense, which could be a daunting challenge for a player entering his age-30 season.
2024-25 Cincinnati Bengals Schedule
Due to bringing up the rear of the AFC North standings and getting to oppose a fourth place schedule, the Bengals will benefit from facing the easiest schedule among their three division rivals. While the Steelers, Browns, and Ravens will contend with the first, third, and fourth toughest schedules respectively, the Bengals will face the sixth easiest, according to Sharp Football Analysis. This scheduling advantage is reflected in the Bengals' futures odds, despite not reaching double-digit wins last season. Their odds of winning Super Bowl LIX, the AFC, and the AFC North title are +1391, +709, and +152 respectively. Although Zac Taylor’s squad only secured nine wins last year, their season win total is set at 10.5 for the 2024-25 football betting season, just half a game less than the previous year. This demonstrates the high regard oddsmakers have for the franchise with Burrow leading the offense.
Matchups are lined up against the AFC West and NFC East, along with standalone contests against the New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, and Tennessee Titans. While nine of their 17 games will be played away from Paycor Stadium, only three come against teams currently favored to make the playoffs. Overall, Cincinnati will face just four teams expected to reach the postseason, with only three games scheduled on short rest. I was eager to target the Bengals in the futures market due to their placement in the division standings last season. However, oddsmakers didn’t offer much of a discount on the team total. Even so, when healthy, Cincinnati is one of the best teams in the league and I’ll play my hand as such by laying the chalk and staking a position on the over. If you can find an alternate over at a good plus-money return, grab it now, as the odds are likely to shorten leading up to Week 1's kickoff against the Patriots.
NFL Win Total Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals Over 10.5 Wins
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