The first thing that has to happen for someone to be considered for the Coach of the Year award is for his team to have success. Only one coach has ever won the award with a losing record, that being Jimmy Johnson of the Dallas Cowboys in 1990. There were some circumstances, though, since Johnson directed a club that went 1-15 the previous season, so a six-game turnaround is a nice achievement. Having served as a head coach in the NFL previously, including an earlier stint with his current employer the Atlanta Falcons, Raheem Morris tops the board as the betting favorite for 2024 NFL Coach of the Year.
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In those previous coaching gigs, Morris posted an overall record of 21-38 and has shown to be a much better coordinator and assistant coach rather than a head coach. The Falcons are also a team in transition having acquired Kirk Cousins to take over at QB. However, the bar is low with the club experiencing its sixth straight losing campaign in 2023. I’m not sure the NFC South is going to be all that strong so just a slight improvement puts Morris and the Falcons in a good spot.
When looking at this NFL futures market there are some coaches we can eliminate right away. If your team has talent and is expected to win you likely aren’t getting a lot of votes, which is why Kansas City’s Andy Reid and Dallas’s Mike McCarthy are positioned well down the odds board. Last year’s winner Kevin Stefanski is near the bottom of the list not because he suddenly became a bad coach but rather because we haven’t seen a repeat winner since Joe Gibbs in the early 1980s.
2024 NFL Coach of the Year Odds
Raheem Morris +625
Matt LaFleur +975
Matt Eberflus +990
Robert Saleh +1000
Jim Harbaugh +1059
DeMeco Ryans +1100
Jonathan Gannon +1200
Dan Campbell +1261
Dave Canales +1300
Mike Macdonald +1335
Mike Tomlin +1513
Dan Quinn +1614
Antonio Pierce +1728
Shane Steichen +1800
Zac Taylor +2033
Brian Callahan +2235
Kevin O’Connell +2259
Jerod Mayo +2439
Sean McVay +2567
Mike McDaniel +2875
Kyle Shanahan +3594
Sean Payton +3594
Doug Pederson +3594
Sean McDermott +4111
Brian Daboll +4111
Nick Sirianni +4619
John Harbaugh +5138
Todd Bowles +6165
Mike McCarthy +6782
Dennis Allen +6782
Kevin Stefanski +6782
Andy Reid +6782
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Morris has a decent foundation to work with in Atlanta giving him a solid shot of having success as a head coach. Despite their woes at QB last season and the sometimes questionable decisions of former coach Arthur Smith, the Falcons ended the 2023 regular season with seven wins. It’s been six years since the team had a winning record and playoff appearance and the addition of Kirk Cousins should stabilize and improve an offense that has playmakers but didn’t have a director. Accolades are also something that can sway voters, and with the NFC South seemingly wide open a division title will go a long way toward making Morris the NFL’s COY.
Though Matt LaFleur has shorter odds I like what Chicago’s Matt Eberflus has going on in the Windy City. There’s no guarantee Caleb Williams makes the transition to the NFL and Chicago is still searching for its first quality signal-caller since Jim McMahon led the franchise to a Super Bowl victory. That ’85 Bears team was recognized more for its defense and that’s what this team is working on. After a 0-4 start last year some were wondering if Eberflus would even finish the season. Now he’s a COY favorite ahead of the 2024 campaign with an offense that has potential to be explosive. If Williams lives up to his potential he has receivers D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze to throw to.
Just for getting through last season Robert Saleh should’ve received some COY votes. The loss of Aaron Rodgers four snaps into the opener was the initial blow, but the Jets went on to win seven games while starting four different QBs. Defensively the Jets will again be strong and having Rodgers healthy and focused, despite his advanced age, will calm an offense that has several young players ready to make significant contributions.
Everything Jim Harbaugh touches turns to gold, so it isn’t surprising to see him listed among the favorites. In his last NFL stint with the 49ers from 2011 to 2014 he was 44-19-1 with three straight trips to the NFC Championship game. Oh, and he did well in college with a winning percentage of 73.5 over 16 years with three different schools.
Kevin Stefanski was a longshot boasting odds around 40/1 last year. Behind a menacing defense the Browns went 11-6 and qualified for the playoffs. Winning the award was a bit of a surprise since Detroit’s Dan Campbell was the favorite for much of the year. Longshots always have a chance and there are several including, Dennis Allen, Todd Bowles and Nick Sirianni with favorable odds should they turn their club around.
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