The Dallas Cowboys have secured 12 regular season wins and playoff berths each of the last three seasons. As they enter the 2024-25 NFL betting season, they aim to surpass their season win total for the fourth consecutive year under HC Mike McCarthy. The online sportsbook views the Cowboys as serious contenders to represent the NFC +750 in Super Bowl LIX and to claim NFC East bragging rights +154 for the third time in four seasons. However, the offseason in Arlington was notably quiet, with Jerry Jones and his team making minimal moves to improve a roster that was eliminated in the Wild Card Round at home against Green Bay. The sting of that 48-32 defeat likely still lingers, motivating the team to hit the field with renewed determination. Nevertheless, the lack of roster enhancements and a tougher schedule compared to last year might cause the team to take a step back this season. Let’s analyze the offseason details to make an informed decision on how to approach the Cowboys’ win total odds heading into the regular season.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
Dallas Cowboys 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Cowboys Over 10.5 Wins +152
Cowboys Under 10.5 Wins -176
A Case for the Over: While the offense lost some key contributors along the offensive line, it should still be one of the more potent attacks in the league with Dak Prescott back under center and CeeDee Lamb serving as his primary target. Dallas' offense ranked fifth overall (371.6 YPG) and led the league in scoring, averaging nearly 30 points per game. With the league’s No. 3 ranked passing attack, which amassed 258.6 yards per game, Prescott surpassed 4,500 passing yards for the second time in his career and threw a league-high 36 touchdown passes, finishing second to Lamar Jackson in MVP voting. Lamb posted career highs in receptions (135), yardage (1,749), and touchdowns (12), finishing third in Offensive Player of the Year voting and earning his third consecutive Pro Bowl selection. As one of the best QB/WR duos in the league, Prescott and Lamb will make the Cowboys' passing offense difficult for opposing defenses to contain. Dallas scored 30+ points in 11 games last season, and with Dak and CeeDee each looking for big paydays, they are poised to field another formidable unit in 2024-25.
A Case for the Under: I’m still scratching my head trying to figure out what the Cowboys were thinking this offseason. While most of the key pieces return for a defense that finished fifth overall and allowed just 18.5 points per game (No. 5) while racking up 46 quarterback sacks (No. 9), the unit will no longer be overseen by Dan Quinn, who left to take the head coaching job with the Washington Commanders. Former Vikings head coach and defensive guru Mike Zimmer was brought in as the new defensive coordinator, but it’s uncertain how the unit will respond to a new play caller after achieving so much success under Quinn. Dallas greatly benefited from turnovers under Quinn, especially last season with 26 takeaways, which included five freaking pick-sixes from DaRon Bland! However, the Cowboys still ranked in the bottom third of the league in red zone defense (No. 22) and were below average on third down (No. 17). With a tougher schedule, how will the defense perform if it doesn't experience the same turnover luck? How this side of the ball adapts will significantly influence whether the Cowboys can exceed their season win total odds for the fourth straight time.
2024-25 Dallas Cowboys Schedule
Looking at the NFL betting odds for all 17 of the Cowboys' regular season games, Dallas is currently favored to win all but three matchups with the underdog spots occurring on the road against the Browns in Week 1, 49ers in Week 8, and Eagles in Week 17. So why is the team's season win total set at only 10.5? More intriguingly, why is the betting market heavily favoring the under, as indicated by the hefty -176 juice? It’s because the franchise’s window of opportunity to make real noise just got slammed shut at home in the Wild Card Round after getting their breakfast, lunch, and dinner served up by the Green Bay Packers. Rebounding from such a loss with a near identical roster is highly unlikely. Jones' decision not to fire McCarthy on the spot and start anew was a huge mistake. If upper management chooses not to re-sign Prescott, it will mark the end of the Jones regime and be remembered as the moment he completely lost touch with the fan base. Given a much tougher schedule, currently ranked the eleventh hardest by Sharp Football Analysis, the Cowboys are unlikely to experience the same turnover luck with a new defensive coordinator at the helm. I’m predicting a significant drop in the team's performance this pro football betting season, resulting in the team falling well short of 11 wins. Expect major changes next offseason, and it wouldn’t shock me in the least if McCarthy was shown the door in-season!
NFL Win Total Prediction: Dallas Cowboys Under 10.5 Wins
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