The Denver Broncos were one of the toughest of all 32 teams to watch last season. The offense was dismal, struggling significantly under Russell Wilson's leadership. The defense, which showed a knack for forcing turnovers, managed to avoid an even lower ranking because of it. This led to an overall record of 8-9 and a third-place finish in the AFC West, buoyed by a hot streak from Week 7-12 when the defense forced several turnovers, ultimately affecting the team’s NFL Draft stock. Entering the 2024-25 NFL betting season, the Broncos are clearly in rebuilding mode, fielding a roster with many new, young players aimed at rejuvenating the franchise. Oddsmakers at the online sportsbook consider Denver to be one of the league's weakest teams, setting their season win total at 5.5 games. Let’s delve into the offseason changes to make an informed decision on betting the Broncos' win total in Sean Payton’s second go-round calling the shots.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
Denver Broncos 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Broncos Over 5.5 Wins +114
Broncos Under 5.5 Wins -134
A Case for the Over: Sean Payton has a history of working wonders with less talented rosters, so a precedent is there for Denver to exceed expectations and quiet its critics. Rookie QB Bo Nix could be a true wild card for the Broncos, bringing extensive collegiate experience into the league as a 24-year-old rookie. He enters with minimal pressure from upper management, teammates, the fan base, or the media, as it's widely understood that the franchise faces a steep climb back to respectability. Despite their struggles last season, Denver managed to win eight games, just coming up short of exceeding their 8.5-game season win total odds. Nix will benefit from a strong running back group led by Javonte Williams, with additional contributions from Samaje Perine, Jaleel McLaughlin, and rookie Audric Estime. If the revamped offensive line can perform at a league-average level at the very least, the Broncos' rushing attack could become the unit's strength, providing a reliable foundation for offensive success. Denver ranked in the bottom third of the league in time of possession last season, which caused the defense to frequently run out of steam. Reducing their time on the field could help the defense mask its deficiencies and potentially allow Denver to field a more balanced team. For that to occur, the running game must become a strength!
A Case for the Under: The Broncos' eight wins of a season ago relied heavily upon turnover luck. Despite the defense securing 26 takeaways, including 15 fumble recoveries, Denver still ranked among the league's worst defensively. They allowed nearly 371 yards per game (No. 29) and struggled significantly against the run, giving up over 137 yards per game (No. 30) to go along with a league-worst 5.0 yards per carry. The stop unit also had trouble preventing touchdowns in the red zone (No. 21), leading to an average scoring deficit of 3.3 points per game (No. 25) for the season. Although the pass defense was somewhat better (No. 22), it still ranked in the bottom third of the league despite facing what proved to be the easiest slate of opposing quarterbacks. The Broncos were successful when the defense forced turnovers, going 6-1 when generating 2+ takeaways per game, but they only managed two wins without this advantage. Unfortunately, the defense appears to have weakened in the offseason, with better players replaced by less effective options. Therefore, it’s not surprising that oddsmakers have Denver favored to only win two games this season, both at home: Week 5 against the Raiders and Week 8 against the Panthers.
2024-25 Denver Broncos Schedule
While the total win line for the Broncos remains 5.5 since first hitting the board, the NFL betting market appears bearish on the team’s prospects for the upcoming season. Initially, heavy -138 vig was attached to the over, but an influx under bets have shifted the NFL betting odds to -134 in favor of the under. The change likely stems from uncertainty about rookie QB Bo Nix and what Sharp Football Analysis considers being the eighth toughest schedule based on opponents' overall win totals. The opening month of the season looks daunting as well, with matchups lined up against the formidable defenses of the @Seahawks, Steelers, @Buccaneers, and @Jets. Currently, they’re catching at least a least a field goal in each of those games. It's conceivable they could enter Week 5 winless, facing the Raiders at home in search of their first victory. Given this scenario, will you be laying the home chalk with Denver in that one? I didn’t think so! Unfortunately, it looks like the Broncos might be in contention for the No. 1 pick in next year’s NFL Draft.
NFL Win Total Prediction: Denver Broncos Under 5.5 Wins
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