The Detroit Lions are poised to make another Super Bowl run entering the 2023-24 NFL betting season coming off a campaign that saw the team fall just one win short of their first-ever appearance in the big game. Detroit just qualified for the playoffs for the first time since 2016 and advanced through the Wild Card and Division Rounds, narrowly losing 34-31 to the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC title game. With Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jared Goff, and Penei Sewell secured for multiple seasons, the Lions' continue to be a team on the rise under head coach Dan Campbell, who has completely turned the fortunes of the franchise around since taking over the reins back in 2021. With a top-5 offensive attack and improving defense in tow, the Lions turned their offseason focus to their primary weakness which proved to be defending the pass. To address this, they drafted Alabama CB Terrion Arnold and Missouri CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr. to bolster the secondary. With additional defensive acquisitions made by upper management, significant improvement is expected to occur on that side of the ball. But will it be enough for these anticipated Super Bowl LIX contenders to surpass their season win total odds at the online sportsbook? Let’s delve into the team’s offseason moves to help NFL bettors make an informed decision on which way to go.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
Detroit Lions 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Lions Over 10.5 Wins -144
Lions Under 10.5 Wins +124
A Case for the Over: Since Campbell started roaming the sideline in Motown, the Lions have seen their odds fluctuate from +2500 to +850, and eventually to +135 to win the NFC North title. Heading into the 2024-25 NFL betting season, they are now +100 favorites to capture their second consecutive division crown, following a remarkable season where they won 12 games to smash their 9.5-game win total odds. Last season, the Lions celebrated their first playoff victory in 32 years by defeating the Rams and Buccaneers in the wild-card and division rounds, only to fall short in a hard-fought 34-31 loss to the 49ers in the NFC title game. The defense, which struggled to protect a 24-7 lead going into the third quarter, was largely responsible for the defeat, particularly in their inability to contain Brock Purdy through the air during critical moments. GM Brad Holmes has taken steps to address this by focusing on the draft and bringing in veteran CB Carlton Davis to strengthen the pass defense. With a top-ranked offense already in place and OC Ben Johnson shockingly returning to call the plays, the Lions are poised to replicate last season's success, provided their defensive upgrades perform as expected. Whether this roster can propel the franchise to Super Bowl contention remains uncertain, but at full strength, they appear capable of surpassing the win total expectations set by oddsmakers once again.
A Case for the Under: The Lions start the season with some of the more highly-rated units on the offensive side of the ball with one of the league’s best offensive coordinators calling the shots. Despite Jonah Jackson's departure, the offensive line remains among the top five, possibly even top two, according to most pundits' rankings. This unit just facilitated top-five rushing and passing attacks, led by David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, who both nearly surpassed the 1,000-yard rushing mark. St. Brown is the alpha of a receiving corps that averaged nearly 260 yards per game with the third-year player averaging a career-highs in yards per game (94.7) and yards per reception (12.7). However, there is little depth behind the team's standout players on either side of the ball. Moreover, Detroit had relatively few injuries last season, making it likely that the injury bug could become a factor this year. This team is poised for some regression, and if it occurs on offense, I'm skeptical that offseason moves will sufficiently compensate for unexpected absences from key contributors. Despite these concerns, Lions fans and NFL bettors remain optimistic, eagerly backing the team's futures odds at online sportsbooks across the board.
2024-25 Detroit Lions Schedule
While I still harbor concerns about the defense, particularly with the front office not doing enough in my opinion to add a complementary bookend rush specialist opposite Aidan Hutchinson to significantly bolster the overall pass rush, the spotlight remains on Detroit's offense with Jared Goff and company aiming to build upon last season's remarkable success. Looking at the schedule bestowed upon the current NFC North champs, the Lions are slated for only three outdoor games, with weather likely impacting just one—an advantageous situation for Goff, who historically performs differently in cold conditions. Additionally, oddsmakers have Detroit favored to win all but four games, with the largest point spread faced +5.5 coming in a Week 17 rematch with the 49ers in Silicon Valley. Of their 14 opponents, only six are currently favored to qualify for the playoffs. Since Dan Campbell's first season, the Lions have excelled in NFC North play, boasting a 9-3 record over the last two seasons (6-0 at home and 4-2 on the road). According to Sharp Football Analysis, Detroit's overall schedule strength ranks twelfth toughest overall and second toughest within the division. Nonetheless, the Lions have demonstrated to me that they can compete with the best of the best, falling just one win short of representing the NFC in the big game. Currently heavily favored -215 to return to the postseason and the second-shortest +526 option to oppose the AFC's best in Super Bowl LIX, Detroit appears primed for more success evidenced by the current NFL futures odds listed at the online sportsbook. That paired with my affinity for the Honolulu blue watching it all get rebuilt from the ground up and making me some coin along the way, I confidently support betting on the higher end of the team's win total without hesitation.
NFL Win Total Prediction: Detroit Lions Over 10.5 Wins
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