The Green Bay Packers' initial campaign without No. 12 under center started poorly, with the team winning only three of their first nine games, leaving diehard fans frustrated. Despite this, their 4-5 record against the NFL odds painted a somewhat better picture of what was transpiring on the field of play. After a Week 10 loss to the Steelers, where the team coughed up a 19-17 third-quarter lead, the Packers rebounded by winning six of their final eight games, securing a playoff spot. They caught fire in the postseason, decisively defeating the Dallas Cowboys in the Wild Card Round before narrowly missing an upset against the 49ers in San Francisco. A victory there would have shocked many, given San Francisco's top seed in the NFC. As a result of their strong finish, expectations are high for Jordan Love and the team, with Love listed as one of the favorites to take home the MVP Award +1109 come the conclusion of the upcoming NFL betting season. However, the upcoming schedule is tougher, the defense has a new coordinator, and the decision not to bring Aaron Jones back is questionable in this author’s opinion. Green Bay has exceeded its win total odds in four of the five seasons with Matt LaFleur at the helm. While history suggests the Packers could surpass expectations again, it’s essential to examine their offseason moves to determine if these expectations are justified or overrated.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
Green Bay Packers 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Packers Over 9.5 Wins -128
Packers Under 9.5 Wins +108
A Case for the Over: I'm eager to see how new DC Jeff Hafley will revamp what had been one of the league's more disappointing defensive units under the previous coordinator. Former DC Joe Barry's conservative approach resulted in a defense that, while strong against the pass (No. 9) and logging 45 sacks (No. 16), struggled significantly against the run, allowing over 128 yards per game (No. 28) and 4.5 yards per carry (No. 25). This inability to contain the run, particularly evident when they failed to limit Christian McCaffrey's impact in the playoffs, ultimately cost them a game in which they held a touchdown lead heading into the fourth-quarter. Hafley's aggressive style is expected to bring a new level of intensity, with the defense applying pressure from all directions, potentially increasing opponent miscues to surpass last season's 18 forced turnovers. The addition of Xavier McKinney to the secondary should bolster a pass defense that allowed 10.2 yards per completion (No. 18). This anticipated defensive improvement could significantly enhance Green Bay's performance in single score games, where they posted a 6-6 record last season.
A Case for the Under: As a diehard Bears fan, it pained me to see the Packers' wide receiver corps excel during Love’s first season as the franchise’s QB1. Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs were game changers, combining for nearly 1,500 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns throughout the regular season. Dontayvion Wicks also showed promise, making the most of his reps while Christian Watson dealt with injuries. However, it was Aaron Jones who elevated the offense to another level toward the end of the season and into the playoffs. While Love had his heroic moments, Jones made numerous key plays both rushing and catching passes out of the backfield, sparking the Packers' late-season surge. I remain skeptical about Josh Jacobs. Apart from one standout season with the Raiders, where he carried the ball a career-high 340 times, Jacobs hasn't shown me that he's on the same level as the former RB1 of the franchise. Despite the Packers having a highly regarded offensive line heading into the regular season, I’s ability to open running lanes could go for naught if the running game falters, especially if Jacobs replicates last season’s underwhelming performance instead of his previous Pro Bowl form of the year prior. Should the ground attack fall off, it’ll be interesting to see just how QB1 ready Love is when taking into account how rough the season started last year.
2024-25 Green Bay Packers Schedule
Like many NFL bettors, I came away shocked by how easily the Packers disposed of the Dallas Cowboys in Big D and then followed it up with a fantastic effort by the bay. I fully understand the bullish stance the NFL betting market has taken on this team throughout the offseason due to their late-season surge. However, half a season doesn't make for a full one, and with heightened expectations, I'm sticking my neck out and fading Green Bay’s win total odds at the online sportsbook. The Packers had a laughably easy schedule last season, with only four opponents ultimately going on to punch tickets to the playoffs. This time around, they face what Sharp Football Analysis forecasts as the fourteenth toughest schedule, with six teams currently favored to qualify for the playoffs. Linemakers have LaFleur’s team favored in 12 games according to the season-long NFL odds, yet they don’t even sport a double-digit win total? I’m fading the hype and will force the Packers to prove last year’s late-season run was legit and not just a flash in the pan. Don’t get me wrong, this is a solid team, but I think the overall strength of the division has greatly improved. Coupled with a tougher schedule, this will ultimately see the team fall short of eclipsing their win total for the second time in as many years.
NFL Win Total Prediction: Green Bay Packers Under 9.5 Wins
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