The Houston Texans won a total of 11 games from 2020-22, missing the playoffs each year. This prompted GM Nick Caserio to roll up his sleeves and dramatically overhaul the team in the offseason to reverse its fortunes. After winning the AFC South title for the first time since 2019 and winning a playoff game, it's clear the front office's efforts paid off, laying the groundwork for future success. C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson won the Rookie Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year awards, while DeMeco Ryans came a vote short from taking home Coach of the Year Award honors. With raised expectations, the Texans are now favored to repeat as AFC South champs (-110) and figure to be major players to represent the AFC +807 in Super Bowl LIX. Does this mean NFL bettors should throw caution to the wind and go all-in on the Texans like the current futures odds suggest? Let’s not jump the gun and first analyze the offseason moves the team made to make an informed decision on how to wager on the Texans 2024-25 season win total odds.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
Houston Texans 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Texans Over 9.5 Wins -147
Texans Under 9.5 Wins +127
Case for the Over: Despite injuries to the offensive line and a running game that averaged fewer than 97 yards per game (No. 22), the Texans still boasted a formidable passing attack, averaging over 245 yards per game (No. 7). This success was largely due to C.J. Stroud's impressive performance, surpassing 4,100 passing yards, and a talented young receiving corps led by Nico Collins who went for a career-high 1,297 receiving yards. Rookie Tank Dell also made an impact before a season-ending leg injury, and Dalton Schultz brought consistency at tight end after coming over from the Cowboys. The offense could become even more potent this year with the addition of Stefon Diggs, who is aiming to surpass 10,000 career receiving yards, and Joe Mixon from the Bengals, looking to boost a previously lackluster rushing attack. With a healthier offensive line and improved run support, Stroud is one of only four quarterbacks with a passing yards prop over 4,000 yards, setting high expectations for this offense and making it a prime target for prop bettors this NFL betting season.
Case for the Under: Houston's schedule has shifted from a fourth to first-place slate, presenting one of the toughest strengths of schedules among all 32 teams. Last year, only three of their regular season opponents went on to punch tickets to the postseason, but this season, they will run up against eight teams favored to cash in on the “Yes” odds to make the playoffs at the online sportsbook. That will present a significant challenge for a defense that improved last season but still ranked No. 14 overall, allowing over 330 yards and nearly 21 points per game (No. 11). While Danielle Hunter was brought in to replace Jonathan Greenard, who took his EDGE spot in Minnesota, the Vikings may have gotten the better end of that move. The Texans' No. 23-ranked pass defense of a year ago remains a concern despite the infusion of young draft picks and veteran additions. The stop unit's performance will be crucial to at the very least match last year's win total against a tougher cast of opponents. The full three game jump in the season win total odds is the highest of any team considered a favorite to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
2024-25 Houston Texans Schedule
According to Sharp Football Analysis, only the Steelers, Patriots, Browns, Ravens, Vikings, and Titans face a tougher expected schedule strength than the Texans, considering all opposing win totals. Despite this, oddsmakers are optimistic about Houston as the regular season nears. The Texans have the fifth-shortest odds to win the AFC +807 and are -110 chalk to take home division bragging rights once again. Both NFL bettors and oddsmakers anticipate success, evident from the heavy -147 juice supplanted on the over of Houston’s 9.5-game win total. A strong start is possible, with the first four weeks featuring opponents expected to finish .500 or worse.
Overall, the schedule ranks as the seventh-toughest per Sharp Football Analysis, with matchups against the division, AFC East, NFC North, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, and Baltimore Ravens on the docket. Due to the first place schedule, the standalone games come against the three reigning champs of their respective divisions. The AFC East has three teams favored to reach the playoffs, while the NFC North has two, with the Bears considered a coin flip. Despite these challenges, Houston went 4-2 against divisional opponents last season and still appears to be the best team the quadrant has to offer. Although nine of their 17 games will occur on the road, facing the Patriots early is a bonus, as New England is expected by this author to improve as the season progresses. While the schedule will undoubtedly be a litmus test throughout, the Texans showed me enough last season to suggest their success wasn’t a fluke. With a resilient roster brimming with young up-and-coming talent, Houston is poised to impress and likely carry a double-digit win total at this time next season.
NFL Win Total Prediction: Houston Texans Over 9.5 Wins
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