Had the Indianapolis Colts triumphed in their dramatic, competitive home finale against the Houston Texans, Shane Steichen would have led the team to the playoffs in his first season as head coach, clinching the AFC South title. Nevertheless, achieving 9-8 records both straight up and against the closing NFL odds was a significant accomplishment, especially considering the previous year's dismal performance under a beleaguered coaching staff. Steichen's fast-paced offensive strategy showed noticeable improvement on the offensive side of the ball, leading many NFL bettors to believe that Indianapolis could be a serious contender in both divisional play and the AFC, particularly with Anthony Richardson yet to fully showcase his potential due to an abbreviated rookie season. But did the team make enough defensive upgrades to meet these heightened expectations? Let's examine GM Chris Ballard's offseason moves to make an informed decision on how to bet the Colts' 2024-25 season win total odds.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
Indianapolis Colts 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Colts Over 8.5 Wins -108
Colts Under 8.5 Wins -112
A Case for the Over: Even with journeyman backup Gardner Minshew starting 13 of the team's 17 games, the Colts' offense remained credible. The vet threw for 3,305 yards and a 15:9 TD/INT ratio despite limited resources in the passing game. With minimal contributions from the tight ends, the offense relied heavily on Michael Pittman Jr. and rookie Josh Downs. Pittman turned his 109 receptions into a career-high 1,152 yards, while Downs amassed 771 yards from 68 catches. Unfortunately, they only combined for six touchdown receptions. To address the need for a deep threat, Indianapolis selected Texas WR Adonai Mitchell with the No. 20 pick in the second round of the NFL Draft. Coupled with the league’s tenth ranked rushing attack led by Jonathan Taylor and a highly-regarded offensive line, the Colts will field a well-rounded offense each week. If Anthony Richardson can stay healthy and make significant strides, the offense could be a goldmine for weekly and seasonal NFL player prop bettors.
A Case for the Under: I'm puzzled by the Colts' quiet approach in free agency this offseason. Despite having ample cap space to make at least one significant move, the front office chose to mostly stand pat. Given that the defense just allowed nearly 124 rushing yards per game (No. 24) and 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game (No. 29), you would expect them to add a proven run-stuffer or two. However, that wasn't the case. The new two-year, $46M contract extension for DeForest Buckner didn't address the run defense issues in Gus Bradley’s system. First-round draft pick EDGE Laiatu Latu, who comes with injury concerns, will likely enhance the pass rush that recorded 51 sacks last season, but his selection felt off, especially with Texas DT Byron Murphy II still available and immediately picked by Seattle. Time will tell if focusing on retaining their own free agents rather than adding new defensive game-changers was the right decision.
2024-25 Indianapolis Colts Schedule
The Colts entered last season with a 6.5-game win total and faced the tenth easiest schedule. Of their 14 opponents, six made the playoffs. With a third-place finish, Shane Steichen's troops now get the benefit of running up against a third-place schedule, and oddsmakers have increased their win total to 8.5 games. Only seven of their opponents are currently favored to make the playoffs at the online sportsbook. According to Sharp Football Analysis, their schedule strength ranks out as the seventh easiest among all 32 teams, with matchups against the AFC East, NFC North, Pittsburgh Steelers, Denver Broncos, and New York Giants. All 17 games are scheduled for Sundays, with only two not slated for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff. This consistency could benefit a team led by a solid coaching staff.
The first 12 weeks of the season feature several tough games, starting with the Texans, @Packers, Bears, and Steelers in the first month. If the Colts capitalize on their home field advantage, it could produce solid momentum that could potentially turn into divisional road wins at Jacksonville and Tennessee over the next two weeks. If not, it’s tough envisioning this squad competing with Houston for division supremacy of which it’s currently a +359 dog at the online sportsbook to do so. The final month of the season will likely make or break it for NFL win total bettors with games set to go against @Broncos, Titans, @Giants, and Jaguars. Richardson could ultimately prove to be the wild card. I liked what I saw from the kid in limited action last season. If he learned how to protect himself better in the offseason, the Colts offense could be a juggernaut!
NFL Win Total Prediction: Indianapolis Colts Over 8.5 Wins
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