The Jacksonville Jaguars matched their 9-8 record from Doug Pederson's first season at the helm last year, but fell short of playoff contention, marking a disappointing outcome in his second go-round. Injuries, late-season struggles, turnovers, and execution failures contributed to the Jags just coming up short of surpassing their 9.5-game win total odds. It also didn’t help that C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans got shot out of a cannon! As a result, linemakers have set their win total a game lower than last season's close, signaling bearish expectations of a regression taking place in Duval County. Should NFL bettors follow suit with this assessment from the sportsbook, or take a different approach? Let's scrutinize the offseason moves made by GM Trent Baalke and his staff to make an informed decision on how to approach making a wager on Jacksonville's win total heading into the 2024-25 NFL betting season.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
Jacksonville Jaguars 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Jaguars Over 8.5 Wins -128
Jaguars Under 8.5 Wins +108
A Case for the Over: The Jaguars seemed poised to exceed their win total through Week 12 last season, boasting an 8-3 record both straight up and against the closing NFL odds after logging an impressive 24-21 road win and cover over the Houston Texans. However, their momentum was halted the following week at home against the Jake Browning-led Cincinnati Bengals when injuries struck. Christian Kirk pulled up lame after his lone reception, and Trevor Lawrence later suffered a severe ankle sprain that appeared season-ending. Kirk missed the rest of the season, and Lawrence played at less than 100 percent the rest of the way. This led to five losses and dashed the hopes of over bettors. To bolster the offense, Gabe Davis joined from Buffalo, providing Lawrence with a legitimate deep threat, while LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr. will attempt to make the Duval County faithful forget about Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones. When healthy, the Jaguars' offense was one of the better units in the league. If the rookie pass catcher makes an immediate impact, Jacksonville could boast one of the best offenses in a winnable division.
A Case for the Under: I have my doubts about the Jaguars' defense being able to compensate for key losses in the secondary this season, especially with a tougher schedule on the horizon. Last year, Jacksonville faced only a few top-tier passing offenses, going 1-3 straight up and against the spread in those matchups, losing to the Chiefs, Ravens, and 49ers by a combined score of 74-19. Their lone win came against the Bills overseas after a stay in London following a trouncing of underachieving Atlanta. Even with Darious Williams and Tre Herndon, the Jaguars marched the league’s No. 26 ranked pass defense onto the gridiron, allowing nearly 240 yards per game. While Ronald Darby and Tyson Campbell were brought in to fill the gaps, Darby has logged many miles with Baltimore, and Campbell has been a disappointing 2021 draft pick. There are some really formidable passing attacks littered throughout the AFC South, and I’m not sold on this unit being able to combat them in divisional play.
2024-25 Jacksonville Jaguars Schedule
With only two primetime matchups and another set of back-to-back games overseas, Jacksonville’s 2024-25 schedule appears manageable on paper. Sharp Football Analysis rates it as the fourteenth easiest strength of schedule among the 32 overall teams. After running up against eight playoff-bound teams last year, Lawrence and company will only encounter seven opponents currently favored to make the playoffs this football betting season. However, oddsmakers still predict a second-place AFC South finish when gauging the current futures odds to win the division, with the Texans expected to rule the roost and the Jaguars competing with the Colts for runner-up. Given the strength of the AFC, it’s challenging to envision the AFC South sending more than one team to the postseason.
The schedule is tough leading up to the first of two London games, with matchups against the @Dolphins, Browns, @Bills, @Texans, and Colts. While the schedule lightens up dramatically in the back half following the Week 12 bye, there’s plenty of landmines on the docket before they get to that point. On top of that, the team only gets the benefit of playing seven games in their home digs where it logged a winning 4-3 mark a season ago. Only the Commanders, Jets, Vikings, and Browns committed more giveaways than Jacksonville did last year. Lawrence’s effectiveness was also killed by dropped passes when healthy and while playing on a gimpy leg. If the offense can show positive regression in these areas, it could become a formidable unit. It’ll have to be however since I foresee Jacksonville partaking in a number of shootouts against excelled aerial attacks due to a pass defense that simply just won’t be able to keep up. That for all intents and purposes will lead to the under cashing in for the second straight season.
NFL Win Total Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars Under 8.5 Wins
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