Love ‘em or hate ‘em, the Kansas City Chiefs are the NFL's current preeminent dynasty. Picking up where the New England Patriots left off, the reigning champions are aiming to make history in the 2024-25 NFL betting season by becoming the first team ever to win the Super Bowl three consecutive times. Regardless of whether they achieve this monumental feat, Patrick Mahomes and his teammates are expected to be dominant once again, currently installed +530 favorites to win Super Bowl LIX and favored to clinch the AFC West title for the ninth straight time. Since Andy Reid became head coach in 2013, the Chiefs have exceeded their season win total odds all but twice, with nine consecutive seasons of tallying double-digit wins. Despite just falling short of their win total last season, they face another high benchmark this year with a win total of 11.5, one of only two teams in the league with such a high mark. Let's analyze the work done by GM Brett Veach this past offseason to make an informed decision on betting the Chiefs' season win total for the upcoming campaign.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
Kansas City Chiefs 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Chiefs Over 11.5 Wins -124
Chiefs Under 11.5 Wins +104
A Case for the Over: Evidenced by winning the division each of the last eight seasons, the Chiefs seemingly own a stranglehold of their division mates. Since 2020, Kansas City boasts an impressive 19-5 record against AFC West opponents. Heading into this regular season, none of their division rivals have win totals that reflect any of them posting winning records. After securing four wins in six tries last season, Kansas City is likely to continue their success within the division. Patrick Mahomes, now entering his seventh season, has consistently led the Chiefs to strong regular-season performances. Their lowest win total in this period was 11 wins last season, with their highest being 14, achieved twice. Regardless of the offensive lineup, the Chiefs consistently find ways to win, whether in blowouts or close contests. Due to the offense struggling mightily in the regular season last year, upper management bolstered the unit by bringing in "Hollywood" Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy to enhance the vertical game for Mahomes. While the defense lost a few key players in the back seven, it remains under the guidance of DC Steve Spagnuolo and is still expected to rank among the league's best. Provided the team stays healthy, oddsmakers may have underestimated the offensive improvements. With Andy Reid at the helm, the Chiefs have gone 9-2 against their win totals, a testament to their consistent overperformance. While betting against the duo has been fruitful two of the last three seasons, this could be a historic season.
A Case for the Under: Despite their dominance in recent years, the Chiefs enter the 2024-25 season with several significant question marks. Travis Kelce, though extended in the offseason, struggled during the regular season before finding his form in the postseason. How much does No. 87 have left in the tank? If Kelce's performance declines, can Rashee Rice, "Hollywood" Brown, and rookie Xavier Worthy pick up the slack? Rice's availability for a full season is uncertain, Brown has a history of injuries, and Worthy is untested at the NFL level. Additionally, the offensive line's dominance waned last season. While the interior with Creed Humphrey, Joe Thuney, and Trey Smith appears solid, both tackle positions are uncertain. Though the unit only allowed 28 quarterback sacks last year (No. 2), this was largely due to Mahomes' ability to evade pressure. The run blocking was subpar (No. 19), and if the pass protection regresses negatively, the offense could face serious issues. The departure of L’Jarius Sneed, who left for Tennessee, is another concern. Sneed was crucial in shutting down opposing passing games. While the new replacements come highly regarded, it remains to be seen how the pass defense will perform without No. 38 in the defensive huddle.
2024-25 Kansas City Chiefs Schedule
With matchups against the AFC North, NFC South, @San Francisco 49ers, @Buffalo Bills, and Houston Texans, the Chiefs are projected to face the league’s twelfth easiest schedule according to Sharp Football Analysis. Out of their 14 opponents, only six are currently favored to make the playoffs at the online sportsbook. This is a favorable setup for the reigning two-time Super Bowl champions. As poor a bet it’s been to fade this team on the season win total odds with the Reid/Mahomes duo running the show, it's noteworthy that linemakers did not adjust this year’s target from last year’s close, even with the seemingly easier schedule. Betting against Mahomes and company might seem risky, but there are significant obstacles the team must overcome to surpass this high benchmark. Additionally, the heavier vig on the over makes the under that much more appealing. While another bid will be punched to the second season putting the team in a position to make history, I'm taking a flier on the under and praying to the football gods about the offense not hitting its stride until after navigating through that tough first six-game stretch of the schedule.
NFL Win Total Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs Under 11.5 Wins
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