The turning point for the Las Vegas Raiders last season occurred in Week 8 when they suffered a 26-14 defeat to the Detroit Lions under the lights of Monday Night Football. Following the loss, Mark Davis promptly dismissed Josh McDaniels as head coach and promoted Antonio Pierce to interim coach. Subsequently, the Silver and Black transformed into a completely different team, finishing the season 5-4 and an impressive 7-2 against the closing NFL odds. Now confirmed as the full-time head coach, Pierce and the Raiders enter the 2024-25 football betting season as an unpredictable entity, with oddsmakers setting their win total at the same mark they surpassed last year. During the offseason, the Raiders made a significant defensive acquisition by signing DT Christian Wilkins to a $110M deal, pairing him with Maxx Crosby in hopes of bolstering a pass rush that accumulated 46 sacks (No. 13) . Offensively, Gardner Minshew II was brought in to inject life into a stagnant passing game (No. 23), despite the presence of talented receivers. For NFL bettors, the question remains: what should be made of the Raiders? Examining their overall performance this offseason will be crucial in making an informed decision on how to attack their season win total odds.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
Las Vegas Raiders 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Raiders Over 6.5 Wins -127
Raiders Under 6.5 Wins +107
A Case for the Over: With an assortment of weapons that included Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Renfrow, and Max Mayer, there was no excuse for the Raiders to rank out amongst the worst offenses in the league. They needed a quarterback to bring it all together. Aidan O’Connell performed admirably in his rookie season, throwing for over 2,200 yards and posting a 12:7 TD/INT ratio. However, the output simply wasn’t enough to prevent opposing defenses to sell out on the run and dare Vegas to beat them through the air. Enter Minshew, who might not be the first name that comes to mind to energize an offense, but he did an impressive job for Indianapolis last season, throwing for 3,305 yards and 15 touchdowns. His efforts earned him the second-best QB rating of his career and his first Pro Bowl appearance. He will take over under center for the Silver & Black with arguably the best assortment of weapons to he’s ever had to sling the pigskin to with rookie TE Brock Bowers also added to the mix. Zamir White will replace Jacobs as the primary ball carrier and has already proven capable of handling the workload. Alexander Mattison was also brought in to diversify the backfield carries. Bottom line, the Raiders' offense should be significantly improved from last season, providing support rather than being a hindrance to a defense that added a key player up front. This enhancement aims to improve last year’s above-average outputs, with run defense being the only notable weakness (No. 21).
A Case for the Under: It's the Raiders—a team that has largely underperformed for as long as I can remember, with only five playoff appearances since the turn of the century. While they were fun and profitable for NFL bettors at the end of last season, it remains to be seen if Antonio Pierce has what it takes to lead the team and turn the franchise's fortunes around with the interim tag removed. Despite being the second-most productive team in the AFC West in recent years, the Raiders' overall roster and coaching still pale in comparison to division heavyweight Kansas City; at least on paper. Unlikely to compete with the Chiefs for division dominance, Las Vegas will probably be in the mix for a wild card spot along with other mid-tier conference teams. The secondary is a significant concern entering the regular season with Marcus Peters and Amik Robertson no longer on the roster. If Crosby and Wilkins can't consistently apply pressure, the Raiders will need to win a number of shootouts. If Minshew isn't the solution at quarterback, the Raiders will struggle to exceed the current 6.5-game impost. Much would have to go right for Las Vegas to exceed their season win total for the fifth time in the last six years.
2024-25 Las Vegas Raiders Schedule
When analyzing the point spreads for all 17 games at the online sportsbook, it's clear that linemakers expect the Raiders to be competitive, despite assigning them a 6.5-game win total for the second consecutive season. The Raiders are only underdogs by 6 or more points in four games: Week 2 at the Ravens, Week 9 at the Bengals, Week 11 at the Dolphins, and Week 13 at the Chiefs. While only favored to win two games (against the Panthers and Broncos at home), they’re slight underdogs (1-3 points) in eight other matchups. If they manage to win at least half of those games, the Raiders could bury the current win total, especially with the potential to surprise some tougher opponents on their schedule. Sharp Football Analysis ranks the Raiders' schedule as the ninth toughest in the league, with games against the AFC North and NFC South, and additional matchups against the @Rams, @Dolphins, and Jaguars. Only six teams on the docket are currently favored to make the playoffs. I believe oddsmakers and the NFL betting market are underestimating this team. The Raiders rallied around Antonio Pierce to finish strong last season, and I expect that momentum to carry into 2024-25, bolstered by new additions to the roster. At worst, I see this team flirting with a .500 record, making a bet on an alt over a smart move at a favorable plus-money price.
NFL Win Total Prediction: Las Vegas Raiders Over 6.5 Wins
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